South Africa had no proven Scientific Model that warranted Economic Lockdown: Only the South African politicians, their families, and friends, have benefited, and this is a call to our politicians to return our Country, to free us from the human rights abuses, failing which, to show us the proven Scientific Model, for economic lockdown, tobacco and alcohol prohibition.
THIS IS ADDENDUM 01 TO LETTER DATED AUGUST 02, 2020
WARNING: I am only in my first year of ‘economic and medical science’ study.
Europe and the USA, potentially, one or both of these areas, would host the WHO ‘Scientific Model’ that South Africa has followed into Economic Lockdown.
If I am correct, the Scientific Model that they used, was developed during a period when the Northern Hemisphere influenza season, still had 12 weeks to run its course.
South Africa, plus the WHO and all Medical Scientists, and Economists, were aware of the inability of South Africa’s Health System to control their finances, through Corruption and Irregular Expenditure. Mismanagement, particularly when the Systems prime objective is to ‘Capture the Funds’, that should be used to manage the health system, the management mindsets, so busy raping the ‘coffers’, is confirmation that those in power, have little concern for the citizen, and in particular the ‘front line’ workers, and the poverty group
Some 140 lives were lost, during the Esidimeni tragedy, and the fiscus has an amount of R 150 million, that the tax needs to recover, recently, in a refreshingly candid interview, Professor Salim Abdool Karim traced the inability of Eastern Cape hospitals to meet the demand for Covid related care, back to corruption and incompetence.
President Ramaphosa, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the chairperson of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, according to this article above, makes a statement that could transfer financial liability, from the Insurance Industry to the State Fiscus, like the Esidimeni Mental Care deaths, should corruption and incompetence be proved, it could be costly.
FINDINGS Addendum 01
1: South African Economy did not have the financial ability, to survive the economic lockdown, the recovery will be impossible, without an overall restructuring of the System, and those who were in Control:
Coronavirus versus Economy 101
As writer of this submission, I am very aware of the Coronavirus Fear Factor, that exists in South Africa and the World, may I first sympathise with those of you who have suffered losses, and ask you to bear with me, as I cover my philosophy of the dangers that the virus carried, the risks, versus maintaining the economy.
We are in the process of the Coronavirus versus our economy, those who were in the poverty group, will find yourself moving through a new novel life, where you will need to learn how to feed your family all over again, but fear not, if you skill yourself, you will find a job in the new-eco world,
My ‘middle-class’ white friends, the future is bleak, you will move closer to the black poverty group, eating from the plate, that they have been eating from, my warning is that the ‘white’ population deteriorates rapidly, when faced with the obstacle called poverty.
The Layman’s philosophy on the very basics of economy, is that a business can never grow, can never repay their debts, if they do not have gross profit on the total transactions that take place between the business and the customers.
For a country to grow economically, this very simple principle also applies.
I have limitations with regard to my economics, to the best of my ability, I will tell a simple story, so that even the medical scientists will get insight into the plight of the informal, and here I am not only referring to the South African experts, but the world experts, the only understanding they have, of the plight of the black, is whether money has been made available for food parcels, the poverty black group, know that 70% of all budgets are wasted in the system, but they still pray for a parcel that will get to them, one day.
My Black Livelihood’s Matter philosophy, is very simple, the world populations that are deemed to be ‘black’, must be returned to a position where, their livelihood is sustainable, where they are sufficiently enabled to cope with, and recover from shocks and stresses, such as natural disasters and economic or social upheavals, in order to enhance their well-being, and more importantly, the well-being of their future generations, without undermining the natural environment or resource base.
In my opinion, very few support initiatives by Governments and NGOs, has this philosophy.
South Africa cries for International Investment, and we all celebrate growth percentages that I do not understand, a few points up, and a few points down, never does the Government or any economist, tell me why I should celebrate, yet when the Country is downgraded, we are all to blame.
The small informal business gross profit, according to the layman’s philosophy, is the Trade Balance, the difference between the income from exports to other countries, balanced with the payments that are made for our imports, any small business if they are not achieving a net profit, would need to obtain loan funds from the bank.
These funds could be easily sourced, provided you have assets to secure the loan amount, and the lender will keep a close eye on the annual financial figures, ready to attach your securities, when their loans move into the risk zone.
As a Company Director, you may be held responsible, should you be aware of the fact that the Company is trading while insolvent, this post does not cover the various provisions, other than to introduce my question, as to whether our Company, South Africa, is potentially insolvent.
The monetary exchange rate of the developing countries, I believe has been manipulated in the interests of the Global Market, I submit that a Country that does not manufacture their essential needs, that does not have any add on value through the conversion of their raw-materials, is a country that has no economic life, that has no livelihood for their people.
Since 1983, South Africans exist as part of the facade that allows the wealthy groups to continue extracting wealth for the 1% of the world that owns 50% of the world wealth, the shareholders of the Global Market, and when the extraction moves through the break-even point, our population will be left to suffer the fate of many other African and Asian Colonies.
In the traditional Mercantilism Economy, a State, on behalf of their Country would be doing what Donald Trump is attempting to do for the poverty groups in the USA, that is to take manufacturing back to the people.
When this takes place, trade tariffs will be negotiated, China will be more irritated, the Global Market will become very irritated, and the Country Monetary Exchange Rate, will no longer be determined by the 1% of the world, but by 90% of our Country.
When this takes place, the export and importing product categories will change, presently if we applied a moving average to the trade balance data in the next figure, and compare it to the South African Rand exchange rate at the relevant time, we will find that the trade balance of South Africa is not behaving as economic theory would suggest. A weaker exchange rate does not translate into an improving trade balance and a stronger exchange rate does not necessarily lead to a poorer trade balance.
Trade Balance Data
The Trade Balance Data, for the period 2010 to 2019, should give no investor any confidence, to invest in any labour intensive manufacturing or agricultural industry, my aged white brother and sisters would blame South Africa’s legislation for this, we should be blaming the Nationalist Party and the Free Market system, during 2010 to 2019, we accumulate a loss of – R 120,8-billion, with only two years showing signs of recovery, 2016 to 2017, and this is directly as the result of the slump in oil price, where our Imports cost less, and as a result South Africa showed an improved Trade Balance.
The 2019 Top Ten Import and export categories follow, as far as I can establish, the Top Ten have hardly changed during the past five years.
I question, how come South Africa has six of their Top Ten imports, in the Top Ten export categories, but we will leave that to the experts in Economy 102.
Gross Domestic Product, is the world’s quick reference to how well the Country is doing, however, in the days before Free Market, when manufacturing, trade tariff negotiations, monetary exchange rates, productive labour force, productive agriculture crops, the Gross Domestic Product was a true reflection of the Country’s financial achievements, today not.
South Africa’s GDP from 2010 to 2019:
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.
My theory, is that the South African Economy can’t survive the lockdown, not the Country, and not the population.
What is South Africa’s present debt obligation, pre the novel CV?
The Net Loan Debt, per the National Treasury is R 2 814.3-billion.
The following figure shows the projections for loan funding through to 2021/22, the National Treasury figures, is confirmation that South Africa President was reckless to lockdown.
Economical gold production has a very limited life-span, maybe three years, and can the South African Economy survive the R 250-billion annual debt service costs before the novel CV, and with another possible R 60-billion to be added to the debt-service costs, we as the Human Population, will need to unite and find a Business Rescue Plan for our Country, outside of politics, outside of the Global Market control.
The South African Coronavirus advisors use, and quote economic research written on Day 4, of South Africa’s Lockdown, as their economic model that they follow, few of the advisors’ peers, could scientifically dispute that the use of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 as scientific research paper, has no relation to how South Africa should have managed the Control of CV.
Before we locked down, South Africa’s power-supply Company, Eskom, was in debt to the tune of R 420-billion, and required a further R 120-billion to survive.
10% of South Africa’s population own 67% of South Africa’s Net Wealth, this accumulation could only have taken place through the exploitation of South Africa’s labour, minerals and agriculture, in my opinion, the 10% who own 67% of South Africa’s Net Wealth, should pay the R 420-billion, removing the burden from the Citizen.
In the following figure, the black circles represent the five different net wealth groups in South Africa, the first two columns represent only 5% of our population, this group owns 56,5% of South Africa’s Net Wealth, Column 1 to 3, represents 10% of South Africa’s population, and together they own 67,5% of South Africa’s Net Wealth.
When we look at the following graph, when presenting the individual net wealth, the inequality is frightening.
Column one, each individual is worth R 12,5-million, column two, each individual is worth R 1,8-million, column three, each individual is worth R 0,7-million column four, each individual is worth R 0,3-million, and column five, 75% of the population, each individual is worth R 0,0019-million, or for ease to understand R 19 380 per person.
It has taken me many pages, to say what I have said every day, since you announced lockdown, South Africa can’t afford it, and the poverty population will not survive.
Compared to the available net wealth of the Countries, our model may be following, South Africa is USD 770-billion, the models are as follows:
United Kingdom 14,341-billion,
Before we even considered how to manage the CV, any economy restriction, should never impact on Column four and five, without guaranteeing that the 90% of our population will not suffer, or if the State is concerned with loss of life, the economy of the 90% must be retained through the process.
What are the direct costs of the Lockdown:
South Africa’s legal system has attached a value to a life lost through medical negligence, as the result of the Esidimeni Tragedy, that gives me reason to question the State’a ability to protect my life, while accepting the precedence that, should the State be shown to be negligent, an amount of R 1 000 000,00 has been set.
‘Many tens of thousand’ lives, 78 500, could have been compensated for, should the State be found negligent, and if I was President, I would not have locked down, I would have geared our manufacturing sector to provide for the world needs and beyond, and kept SAA flying around the world.
All South Africa needed to do is restrict large public gatherings, play sport behind closed doors, advised the population on how to protect themselves, their elders, and those with compromised immune systems.
Allowed the communities to protect themselves, in exchange for the opportunity to maintain their livelihoods.
I invite my ‘white’ brothers and sisters to join us in the world of the African Spirit, the road ahead is going to be difficult for 90% of us, let the difference between a riot and a protest experienced in the USA today, not be our problem next year.
Let the African spirit convince the 98% of our population, united by the ‘lockdown’, that we were wrong to lockdown, the medical scientists had it wrong, their families have never been hungry, the CV pandemic and the vaccine will bring them wealth for another ten years, while the majority of South Africans will suffer from a depressed economy, unemployment, and our country will need to hide those dying from hunger, by attaching the CV label on their toe.
Cedric de la Harpe:
Your comments will be appreciated.