Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10,

Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.

Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10, Gauteng if you did not, make sure I do not die?

The South African Medical Industry should be complimented for the changes that they made in the Western Province on June 10, 2020,  we first look the results, the changes take place where the three lines intersect on this graph:

Western Cape changes SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10 2020.
Western Cape changes SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10 2020.

The Western Province death statistics, were in a spiral, before June 10, they have recovered, this is the message that should be transmitted to every corner of the world, the Medical staff needs to be celebrated. Cedric needs to be told, that Coronavirus will not necessarily kill him.     

Let us read, what the world needs to know about South Africa, and I have followed International News daily, and never such celebration has taken place.

The Western Cape has shifted to using high-flow nasal oxygen treatment on COVID-19 patients after the first six patients placed on ventilators died at Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town. The Times reports that lead of the provincial department of health Dr Keith Cloete explained the shift in strategy during a virtual press briefing.

Ventilators were used as one of the main treatments for critical care COVID-19 patients during the initial phases of the global pandemic, but the experience from Tygerberg Hospital prompted a rethink.

Cloete said 114 high care patients at Tygerberg, representing about 70% of high care patients at the hospital, were placed on high-flow nasal oxygen after meeting certain criteria for the treatment. He said that 70% of these people recovered from the disease.

“The experience of our team at Tygerberg was right at the beginning our first six COVID-19 patients that were admitted to critical care, all six were admitted for what is called early ventilation because at the time that was the recommended mode of treatment,” he said.

“What happened is all six of those patients died. At that time there was the first emerging studies of critical care success by using high flow nasal oxygen,” he said.

“So, the team at Tygerberg decided that the next seven patients that came in for critical care were placed on high-flow nasal oxygen. Six out of the seven recovered. That was a huge turnaround for the team at Tygerberg,” said Cloete.

He said the high-flow nasal oxygen treatment was so successful that they were considering moving patients from critical care and ICU wards to normal wards.

Full report in The Times

Why are the medical scientists not celebrating Tygerberg Hospital:

Very simply, the European and United States Medical Scientists, will all loudly claim that there is not scientific proof that the Tygerberg system will not result in deaths, very alternative to the defined WHO model that our Command Council promotes, is blocked by the system, removed from Social Media, never question by the formal media.

In South Africa, the answer is quite simple, the ‘State of Emergency’ system, I am not sure what we call the powers that are given to our Politicians to abuse our human rights, but it has allowed rampant Corruption to take place, in the name of saving my life, Gauteng MEC of Heath has been suspended for his alleged part in the Corruption, and the Eastern Cape has long been complained about due to the rampant corruption, and I quote from a CorruptionWatch article;   

A snapshot from the Eastern Cape demonstrates serious cause for concern: R10 million for scooters which may or may not be ambulances; handwritten invoices for R4.8 million for door-to-door campaigns during a “stay-at-home” lockdown; and rotten maize being distributed to hungry residents.

Recently, in a refreshingly candid interview, Professor Salim Abdool Karim traced the inability of Eastern Cape hospitals to meet the demand for Covid related care back to corruption and incompetence.

President Ramaphosa, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the chairperson of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, according to this article above, makes a statement that could transfer financial liability, from the Insurance Industry to the State Fiscus, like the Esidimeni Mental Care deaths, should corruption and incompetence be proved, it could be costly.

Let us look at the two provinces, Gauteng and Eastern Province, death rates, the impact on the Countries Death Rate is frightening;

Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.
Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.

Notwithstanding the Western Province success, huge increase in the death rate during the past week takes place, thousands of cases where victims have died, and I need to repeat an extract from this quoted article.       

“The experience of our team at Tygerberg was right at the beginning our first six COVID-19 patients that were admitted to critical care, all six were admitted for what is called early ventilation because at the time that was the recommended mode of treatment,” he said.

“What happened is all six of those patients died. At that time there was the first emerging studies of critical care success by using high flow nasal oxygen,” he said.

Mr. President, South Africa Medical systems, did not have the facilities or managerial ability, to control the virus, added this, any system manager, who gets involved  in corruption, filtering money that is earmarked for the health services, has chosen his comfortable livelihood, over thousands of Black Lives.     

Where does criminal liability end in the chain of command, but then, the tax payer is the one that will carry the financial liability, and the poverty black groups, the hunger, pain and suffering.

President Ramaphosa, the ANC Government has a confirmed track record of Corruption, a confirmed track record of incompetence,  therefore, as the Commanding Officer, to lockdown the economy and the people, to remove all opportunity for the people to provide for themselves, you and your Ministerial Council, needs to take all responsibility for all deaths, since June 30, unless the protocol implemented in the Western Cape was used nationally.   

May I repeat, Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10, Gauteng if you did not, make sure I do not die?

Cedric de la Harpe

 

  

   

Conclusions

Conclusions

The take home lessons are, first, that imposing stricter restrictions early in an epidemic than are necessary to prevent a health system being overwhelmed is likely to have little impact on the proportion of the population that is eventually infected, in the absence of a vaccine becoming available before restrictions are relaxed. And secondly, that a well-timed imposition of strict  restrictions for a fairly short period as the herd immunity threshold is approached can hugely reduce the overshoot of the eventually infected proportion above the HIT. States that imposed strict restrictions early on and then relaxed them may find their populations unwilling to see such measures reintroduced. However, the populations of states that introduced milder restrictions and are in reality pursuing a herd immunity strategy may find the imposition of strict restrictions for a short period bracketing the crossing of the HIT to be an attractive option. In either case, the serious illness and fatalities associated reaching the eventual level of infections can be very greatly reduced if elderly and vulnerable people are shielded from infection, as discussed in an earlier article.14

Nicholas Lewis 28 May 2020

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks,

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks, and the time has come for South Africa to celebrate the virus as it moves away. 

Remember May 24, 2020, I severely criticise the Western Cape management of the Coronavirus, based on the accumulated deaths, per 100000 of the population.

Coronavirus Graph
South Africa, Western Cape and Gauteng, may 24 deaths / 100000

My apologies, my presentation does no justice to the situation,, and eight weeks the graph shows very little change, other than Gauteng losing it.  

I still do not understand the movement.

Coronavirus 8 wks later
Coronavirus 8 wks later

 

My new research shows, that South Africa had achieved hide immunity threshold on May 24, 2020, and lockdown should have been removed.

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 24

Todays analysis shows that the WesternCape also achieves herd immunity threshold on May 24, directly contributing to South Africa’s overall HIT achievement.

WesternCape HIT
WesterCape Herd Immunity Threshold.

Those who brand this blog as FAKE NEWS would have not read any part of this document, for those of you who are still reading, the Hospitalisation and ICU improvement, confirms the virus is under control.

Hospitalisation and ICU improvement
WesternCape ICU
WesternCape ICU

If South Africa does not understand that we should never have locked down, that the model was intended for the rich, that there will be no more deaths than the system provided for, I am wasting my time.

May I link you to the model blog, which shows that the mortality rate will still be high, so lets get on with our lives;

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Cedric de la Harpe

One more blog will follow, as I analyse the reason for the Western Cape success, and speculate on why Gauteng is failing us.

Cdric

 

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold, has been reached, without their scientists responding,

SA Death per age:

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold has been reached without their scientists responding, I would love to analyse the Western Cape pandemic results, but first, for those admins who consider me to be spreading fake news, a little bit of my research.

Nic Lewis does a ‘peer review’ on theFerguson20 model,  (1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9,  that South Africa follows, here I discuss South Africa’s ‘inhomogeneity’ which results in HIT at 35%:

The following comment on page 4, of F20, clearly does not extend the results of this study to include South Africa as a candidate to follow Ferguson.

I quote from Page 4

We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here, except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made.

Suppression, while successful to date in China and South Korea, carries with it enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being in the short and longer-term.

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Instead we focus on feasibility, with a specific focus on what the likely healthcare system impact of the two approaches would be.

We present results for Great Britain (GB) and the United States (US), but they are equally applicable to most high-income countries.

Those who follow me, will know that I would normally use bold to highlight relevant details, in the above comment, everything is relevant, or maybe irrelevant?

I quote further:

Methods:

The Transmission Model:  Page 4:

Census data were used to define the age and household distribution size. Data on average class sizes and staff-student ratios were used to generate a synthetic population of schools distributed proportional to local population density. Data on the distribution of workplace size was used to generate workplaces with commuting distance data used to locate workplaces appropriately across the population. Individuals are assigned to each of these locations at the start of the simulation.

The aims and objectives of the Ferguson20 report, is a specific focus on what the likely health care system impact will be.

Nic Lewis, in his review, is critical of the model due to the study done on a homogenous group, I am critical of South Africa’s use, because firstly, it is only equally applicable to most high-income countries:       

South Africa is poor, in comparison to the model?

The USA has USD 105,99 trillion, Africa has USD 2,2 trillion, South Africa, only USD 0,77 trillion, and South Africa has a median wealth of USD 6476, before Covid, 55,5% of South African lived in poverty, some 30 million people.

Net Wealth
Net Wealth

Europe and USA, thanks to their wealth, not only has medical facilities and systems, that are ten times more superior than what South Africa has developed for the majority of our population, which has resulted in ageing communities, and more importantly, a system that these wealth Countries provide, and that is the hospitalisation and commitment to their citizens, this commitment does not exist in South Africa.

Europe and the USA, quite rightly, establish that their normal medical service that they provide to their population, will be overloaded, and therefore the model, proposes lockdown, to assist their medical service provision, by South Africa following this model, we embark on a new dimension of medical treatment for our black poverty population, a dimension that our country will never afford, not under our present Government system.              

Let us look at the population structures:

South Elderly Comparison
South Elderly Comparison

South Africa has a 6% elderly population, Europe 20%, this is sufficient reason for South Africa to reject the Ferguson20 model, but table 1 below, requires us to analyse above figures first:

SA Elderly Compared to USA
SA Elderly Compared to USA

Very importantly, we need to scrutinise the findings, that require lockdown in Europe and the USA, and question South Africa’s use thereof;

Aged Ferguson20 model
Aged Ferguson20 model

The percentage symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation, is what the study is based on, yet, South Africa, and the world, have been testing, whether symptomatic or not, thus our Government has failed by following the model, the Government has failed, by wasting our money by unnecessary, and extending lockdown, based on positive tests, whether symptomatic or not.

In the elderly age groups, 60>,  68,2% of symptomatic cases, required hospitalisation, the South African population demographics makes it impossible to follow the model.

   

SA Comparison Death Age
SA Comparison Death Age

South Africa has a high percentage of deaths in the 50 to 70 age group, in conflict with the model?

SA Death per age:
SA Death per age:

South Africa has failed the health of this age group, are we committed to remove this health threat? 

Why is our Age Death graph so different, this is  a topic that we will come back to, for now, get ready for the WesternCape Hide Immunity Threshold surprise that i will publish later today.

Cedric de la Harpe 

South Africa reached Covid herd immunity on May 17 2020

South Africa reached Covid herd immunity on May 17 2020, I have had this analysis on my computer for months, but was not comfortable to express my opinion, till I came across the Nic Lewis blog; 

 

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17

Daily the Medical Scientists will claim that they are still learning, I am still learning, starting with the Nic Lewis blog, and his first reference study, the  study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a fair extent, in the US and some other countries.

I believe that South Africa is following this model, and thus, during the next week I will be researching, and invite you to participate.

Cedric de la Harpe

(1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives, the prejudice to the majority of the world population though economic lockdown, will never be reversed.  Like influenza, it will return again and again, some of us have developed immunity, others will need vaccinations, others, no matter what they do, will die, in over a 100 years, there has been no scientific finding to prevent influenza, influenza comes and goes, influenza’s impact on life could be more severe, or less sever, you can shelter yourself from influenza, but it will find you, many will not have symptoms, other’s will die.      

  ABSTRACT:

I have always treated the Coronavirus Pandemic no differently to how I would treat influenza, when you do 1500 km of training for the 90 km Comrades Marathon, you learn to socially distance yourself, from influenza.

As tour operators, we have lost our livelihoods through the lockdown, and this addendum, BLM 03, is an addendum to our letter to President Ramaphosa,  to save the South African Tourism and Hospitality Industry, plus Taverns and Shebeens, this is one of the industries, that brought income into our poverty black communities, where we have involved ourselves in developing our people, and for this reason, I am unable to support economic lockdown.

My Conclusions:

The world will not smother Coronavirus, by locking down the people, by locking down the economy, the negative impact of the survivors, will never be reversed, and my challenge to any of you lockdown supporters, provide me with the ‘recovery-model’, that will restore the black livelihoods’, failing which, this conclusion will be deemed to have substance. 

FINDINGS

Singapore, South Korea and Australia, all Countries that are celebrated for testing and lockdown, compared to South Africa and Pakistan, reveals; 

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives,
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea 

Singapore has achieved a higher percentage of cases as percentage of the population, than South Africa, yet, one of the lowest death rates per 100000 in the world, some less than 30 times South Africa’s death rate, the Singapore death rate, is comparable to Asia and Oceania, and no reflection on South Africa.

Asia and Oceania, five of the ten Countries wth some 1,7-billion population, have achieved death rates far more impressive than China, Singapore, and South Korea, according to my conclusion, this is sufficient proof that Pakistan’s decision to remove Lockdown, was both economically and medically sound.  

Coronavirus cannot b defeated
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea

Pakistan removes Lockdown on May 09, Sweden, Japan, and Belarus, do not lockdown their economy, Belarus is perceived to be ‘not so honest’, I will restrict comment, but where necessary, I will use statistics to compare, had South Africa considered Japan, our economy may have improved while the world locked down.

Pakistan;

Pakistan PM removes lockdown on May 09, the virus escalates and leaves of its own accord, it will be back, but Pakistan is playing cricket in England.  

Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09
Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09 

Japan:

I quote from the Financial Times article dated April 23, 2020.

Robin Harding in Tokyo

The doctor leading Japan’s response to coronavirus has defended the decision not to implement a national lockdown, saying that elimination of the virus was impossible and it was necessary to limit the damage to the economy.

The comments by Shigeru Omi, chair of the expert committee that advises prime minister Shinzo Abe, highlight the country’s distinctive approach to the epidemic. Japan, along with Sweden, has sought to limit cases without putting a total freeze on economic activity or making social distancing mandatory. 

“Japan wants to bring down the number of cases but it’s impossible to bring it down to zero because of the nature of the disease,” said Dr Omi. He added that the severity of future waves would depend on how public behaviour adapted to the virus.

“Maybe there’ll be another small wave or a big wave depending on how people behave. I think that will continue for some time,” he said. “That’s why we want to balance the maintenance of socio-economic activity with managing this outbreak.”

The assumption that coronavirus is impossible to eliminate also informs Japan’s approach to testing. The country has carried out about 130,000 tests compared with more than 500,000 in South Korea, a country with less than half the population.

On April 23,  Japan declared that the virus would leave, and it would return, at that stage Japan had 146 deaths off 7865 positive cases, from July 07, to August 04, Japan has 38 Deaths, off 19,877 cases.

In this second wave, the cases reach new levels, yet the impact on mortalities is far less severs, we will see the same trend in Sweden, is it the virus that has weakened, or the population more able to process? 

Japan no lockdown achievement
Japan no lockdown achievement

Sweden;

Importantly we need to scrutinise Sweden’s positive infections, initially low in relation to high deaths, then much to the disgrace of the world, infections climbed, but we refuse to see that the deaths in relation of the infections decrease.         

And not how, without locking down, the infections typically influenza, are disappearing, this does not mean that it will not return, but the death rate will continue reducing.

The figure below is very interesting, when the virus arrives, it has a greater impact on the vulnerable and aged groups, through until May 14, 3939 deaths, during the 28303 positive infections, 13,9 % death rate per positive test,  following in June 5,45%, July 2,36% and August 2,19%.

Sweden No Lockdown
Sweden No Lockdown

Sweden, as a population, made the decision not to lockdown the economy, much to the disgust of their European neighbours.

The WHO Scientists, would by now, have Sweden in their research focus, and as we compare Sweden with Italy, France and Spain, Sweden had made a good decision, however, the Medical Scientists remained anxious because of Sweden’s escalating positive cases.     

Sweden death rate per 100000 population, has levelled off just above the European median line, with the United Kingdom still climbing, surely it was a better decision to keep their economy alive.

Sweden Median
Sweden Median

My Conclusion is statistically sound, and few medical scientists would be able to show statistical proof, that economic lockdown, had a positive impact on the number of lives saved, versus the impact on the livelihoods’ of the survivors?

Cedric de la Harpe     

     

  

South Africa should have followed the PM of Pakistan and removed Lockdown on May 09. 2020. BLM 02

South Africa should have followed the PM of Pakistan and removed Lockdown on May 09. 2020.

President Ramaphosa, on May 09, 2020, the PM of Pakistan removed lockdown because the informal traders were no longer able to feed their families,  this was amazing foresight and date, a great achievement, South Africa’s Black Livelihoods’ Matter concerns, requires you to remove the lockdown today, don’t prejudice our citizens till a Court Action rules, that your countries Black Livelihoods’ do Matter.   Please;

THIS IS ADDENDUM 02 TO LETTER DATED AUGUST 02, 2020

FINDINGS Addendum 02

1:  Pakistan Prime Minister, understands that the majority of his population, survive on the informal economy, where the population, as families, rely on the spin off of the formal economy moving past them, and that no Government in the world, has been able to manage, without the informal economic sector; 

Pakistan starts with the ‘world lockdown model’, and on May 09, 2020, the red line on the graph that follows, the PM removes all lockdown, and by May 18, the Court has negated all the restrictive legislation, the daily new cases follow the Sweden trend, then moves away.

Pakistan Coronavirus movement, when not locked down.
Pakistan Coronavirus movement, when not locked down.       

Before I comment, I show the impact of the PM’s decision to remove the lockdown, the graph below shows that the death rate, like in Sweden, follows the movement of the virus daily cases;

We look at Sweden, who did not lockdown in BLM03

Pakistan daily Deaths movement after removing lockdown.
Pakistan daily Deaths movement after removing lockdown.   

This first year scientist does not wish to get into the impact of the positive mindset, but asks the question of the experts, “Is it possible that, removing the lockdown, and allowing the poverty groups the opportunity to scrounge food, brought a small factor of an ability to fight the virus, as it past through the community.

How did South Africa, under strict lockdown, no cigarettes to help the immune system, and no alcohol to reduce the impact on the medical system, due to the South African population’s drunken behaviour, compare with the Pakistani curve?

Very simply, the Scientists who prescribed the Cure Model for the South African virus has failed our poverty population.

Pakistan Covid Deaths / 100000 population
Pakistan Covid Deaths / 100000 population

On May 08, 2020, I blogged on the Pakistani changes, and asked our President to follow, and I quote from the News Article:

The pandemic hit Pakistan in late February. Since then, officials have recorded more than 24,000 confirmed cases and nearly 600 deaths.

Prime Minister Imran Khan on Thursday chaired a meeting of top government officials where the decision was taken to relax restrictions on public and industrial activities.

“We know our curve of infections and deaths (from COVID-19) is gradually rising. But the rate of increase is relatively very low in Pakistan,” Khan said in his post-meeting nationally televised remarks.

In defending the decision, Khan said it is not possible for anyone to predict when and if Pakistan will experience a peak like that of Europe and other worst-hit areas.

“Why are we going ahead to ease the lockdown? Because people in our country, particularly daily wagers, small shopkeepers, taxi drivers, laborers, white-collar families are all facing an extremely difficult situation to feed their families,” Khan said.

I celebrated Khan as a cricketer, today I celebrate him as a leader of people.

President Ramaphosa, the PM of Pakistan made a decision to remove the lockdown, in the interests of the majority of the population who are informal traders, this model I submit, you should have followed.

I believe that the Pakistan Model should have been followed when lockdown was removed, if the model had any proven scientific reason not to follow, in terms of Section 32(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act 108 of 1996, I request details of why you have followed the ‘prescribed scientific model’?

President Ramaphosa, on behalf of all the poverty black people, that I normally have contact with, those who I am currently not allowed to visit, I request you to remove the lockdown totally, failure which, the prejudice and damage that our poverty black population have suffered, we will link you personally to those who have prescribed the ‘medical treatment’, when we ask them to answer to the damages suffered.

This Addendum BLM02 will be followed with BLM03 in due course.

Cedric de la Harpe 

South Africa had no proven Scientific Model that warranted Economic Lockdown

South Africa had no proven Scientific Model that warranted Economic Lockdown: Only the South African politicians, their families, and friends, have benefited, and this is a call to our politicians to return our Country, to free us from the human rights abuses, failing which, to show us the proven Scientific Model, for economic lockdown, tobacco and alcohol prohibition.

THIS IS ADDENDUM 01 TO LETTER DATED AUGUST 02, 2020

WARNING: I am only in my first year of ‘economic and medical science’ study.

ABSTRACT:

Europe and the USA, potentially, one or both of these areas, would host the WHO ‘Scientific Model’ that South Africa has followed into Economic Lockdown.

If I am correct, the Scientific Model that they used, was developed during a period when the Northern Hemisphere influenza season, still had 12 weeks to run its course.

South Africa, plus the WHO and all Medical Scientists, and Economists, were aware of the inability of South Africa’s Health System to control their finances, through Corruption and Irregular Expenditure. Mismanagement, particularly when the Systems prime objective is to ‘Capture the Funds’, that should be used to manage the health system, the management mindsets, so busy raping the ‘coffers’, is confirmation that those in power, have little concern for the citizen, and in particular the ‘front line’ workers, and the poverty group

Some 140 lives were lost, during the Esidimeni tragedy, and the fiscus has an amount of R 150 million, that the tax needs to recover, recently, in a refreshingly candid interview, Professor Salim Abdool Karim traced the inability of Eastern Cape hospitals to meet the demand for Covid related care, back to corruption and incompetence.

President Ramaphosa, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the chairperson of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, according to this article above, makes a statement that could transfer financial liability, from the Insurance Industry to the State Fiscus, like the Esidimeni Mental Care deaths, should corruption and incompetence be proved, it could be costly.

FINDINGS Addendum 01

1:  South African Economy did not have the financial ability, to survive the economic lockdown, the recovery will be impossible, without an overall restructuring of the System, and those who were in Control:

Coronavirus versus Economy 101

As writer of this submission, I am very aware of the Coronavirus Fear Factor, that exists in South Africa and the World, may I first sympathise with those of you who have suffered losses, and ask you to bear with me, as I cover my philosophy of the dangers that the virus carried, the risks, versus maintaining the economy.

We are in the process of the Coronavirus versus our economy, those who were in the poverty group, will find yourself moving through a new novel life, where you will need to learn how to feed your family all over again, but fear not, if you skill yourself, you will find a job in the new-eco world,   

My ‘middle-class’ white friends, the future is bleak, you will move closer to the black poverty group, eating from the plate, that they have been eating from, my warning is that the ‘white’ population deteriorates rapidly, when faced with the obstacle called poverty.     

The Layman’s philosophy on the very basics of economy, is that a business can never grow, can never repay their debts, if they do not have gross profit on the total transactions that take place between the business and the customers.

For a country to grow economically, this very simple principle also applies.

I have limitations with regard to my economics, to the best of my ability, I will tell a simple story, so that even the medical scientists will get insight into the plight of the informal, and here I am not only referring to the South African experts, but the world experts, the only understanding they have, of the plight of the black, is whether money has been made available for food parcels, the poverty black group, know that 70% of all budgets are wasted in the system, but they still pray for a parcel that will get to them, one day.

My Black Livelihood’s Matter philosophy, is very simple, the world populations that are deemed to be ‘black’, must be returned to a position where, their livelihood is sustainable, where they are sufficiently enabled to cope with, and recover from shocks and stresses, such as natural disasters and economic or social upheavals, in order to enhance their well-being, and more importantly, the well-being of their future generations, without undermining the natural environment or resource base.

In my opinion, very few support initiatives by Governments and NGOs, has this philosophy.

South Africa cries for International Investment, and we all celebrate growth percentages that I do not understand, a few points up, and a few points down, never does the Government or any economist, tell me why I should celebrate, yet when the Country is downgraded, we are all to blame.

The small informal business gross profit, according to the layman’s philosophy, is the Trade Balance, the difference between the income from exports to other countries, balanced with the payments that are made for our imports, any small business if they are not achieving a net profit, would need to obtain loan funds from the bank.

These funds could be easily sourced, provided you have assets to secure the loan amount, and the lender will keep a close eye on the annual financial figures, ready to attach your securities, when their loans move into the risk zone.

As a Company Director, you may be held responsible, should you be aware of the fact that the Company is trading while insolvent, this post does not cover the various provisions, other than to introduce my question, as to whether our Company, South Africa, is potentially insolvent.

The monetary exchange rate of the developing countries, I believe has been manipulated in the interests of the Global Market, I submit that a Country that does not manufacture their essential needs, that does not have any add on value through the conversion of their raw-materials, is a country that has no economic life, that has no livelihood for their people.

Since 1983, South Africans exist as part of the facade that allows the wealthy groups to continue extracting wealth for the 1% of the world that owns 50% of the world wealth, the shareholders of the Global Market, and when the extraction moves through the break-even point, our population will be left to suffer the fate of many other African and Asian Colonies.

In the traditional Mercantilism Economy, a State, on behalf of their Country would be doing what Donald Trump is attempting to do for the poverty groups in the USA, that is to take manufacturing back to the people.

When this takes place, trade tariffs will be negotiated, China will be more irritated, the Global Market will become very irritated, and the Country Monetary Exchange Rate, will no longer be determined by the 1% of the world, but by 90% of our Country.

When this takes place, the export and importing product categories will change, presently if we applied a moving average to the trade balance data in the next figure, and compare it to the South African Rand exchange rate at the relevant time, we will find that the trade balance of South Africa is not behaving as economic theory would suggest. A weaker exchange rate does not translate into an improving trade balance and a stronger exchange rate does not necessarily lead to a poorer trade balance. 

Trade Balance Data

South Africa Trade Balance Data
South Africa Trade Balance Data

The Trade Balance Data, for the period 2010 to 2019, should give no investor any confidence, to invest in any labour intensive manufacturing or agricultural industry, my aged white brother and sisters would blame South Africa’s legislation for this, we should be blaming the Nationalist Party and the Free Market system, during 2010 to 2019, we accumulate a loss of – R 120,8-billion, with only two years showing signs of recovery, 2016 to 2017, and this is directly as the result of the slump in oil price, where our Imports cost less, and as a result South Africa showed an improved Trade Balance.

The 2019 Top Ten Import and export categories follow, as far as I can establish, the Top Ten have hardly changed during the past five years.

Trade Data 2019
Trade Data 2019

I question, how come South Africa has six of their Top Ten imports, in the Top Ten export categories,  but we will leave that to the experts in Economy 102.

Gross Domestic Product, is the world’s quick reference to how well the Country is doing, however, in the days before Free Market, when manufacturing, trade tariff negotiations, monetary exchange rates, productive labour force, productive agriculture crops, the Gross Domestic Product was a true reflection of the Country’s financial achievements, today not. 

South Africa’s GDP from 2010 to 2019:

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.

SA GDP 2010 t0 2019
SA GDP 2010 t0 2019

My theory, is that the South African Economy can’t survive the lockdown, not the Country, and not the population.

What is South Africa’s present debt obligation, pre the novel CV? 

The Net Loan Debt, per the National Treasury is R 2 814.3-billion.

The following figure shows the projections for loan funding through to 2021/22, the National Treasury figures, is confirmation that South Africa President was reckless to lockdown. 

SA Debt
SA Debt

Economical gold production has a very limited life-span, maybe three years, and can the South African Economy survive the R 250-billion annual debt service costs before the novel CV, and with another possible R 60-billion to be added to the debt-service costs, we as the Human Population, will need to unite and find a Business Rescue Plan for our Country, outside of politics, outside of the Global Market control.       

The South African Coronavirus advisors use, and quote economic research written on Day 4, of South Africa’s Lockdown, as their economic model that they follow, few of the advisors’ peers, could scientifically dispute that the use of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 as scientific research paper, has no relation to how South Africa should have managed the Control of CV.

Risk Adjustment
Risk Adjustment

Before we locked down, South Africa’s power-supply Company, Eskom, was in debt to the tune of R 420-billion, and required a further R 120-billion to survive.

10% of South Africa’s population own 67% of South Africa’s Net Wealth, this accumulation could only have taken place through the exploitation of South Africa’s labour, minerals and agriculture, in my opinion, the 10% who own 67% of South Africa’s Net Wealth, should pay the R 420-billion, removing the burden from the Citizen.

In the following figure, the black circles represent the five different net wealth groups in South Africa, the first two columns represent only 5% of our population, this group owns 56,5% of South Africa’s Net Wealth, Column 1 to 3, represents 10% of South Africa’s population, and together they own 67,5% of South Africa’s Net Wealth.

Net Worth pr Capita
Net Worth pr Capita

When we look at the following graph, when presenting the individual net wealth, the inequality is frightening.        

Net Worth per group
Net Worth per group

Column one, each individual is worth R 12,5-million, column two, each individual is worth  R 1,8-million, column three, each individual is worth R 0,7-million column four, each individual is worth R 0,3-million, and column five, 75% of the population, each individual is worth R 0,0019-million, or for ease to understand R 19 380 per person.

PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA,

It has taken me many pages, to say what I have said every day, since you announced lockdown, South Africa can’t afford it, and the poverty population will not survive.

Compared to the available net wealth of the Countries, our model may be following, South Africa is USD 770-billion, the models are as follows:

USA 105.990-billion,

Germany   14,660-billion,

United Kingdom   14,341-billion,

France   13,729-billion,

Italy   11,358-billion,

Before we even considered how to manage the CV, any economy restriction, should never impact on Column four and five, without guaranteeing that the 90% of our population will not suffer, or if the State is concerned with loss of life, the economy of the 90% must be retained through the process.

What are the direct costs of the Lockdown:

South Africa’s legal system has attached a value to a life lost through medical negligence, as the result of the Esidimeni Tragedy, that gives me reason to question the State’a ability to protect my life, while accepting the precedence that, should the State be shown to be negligent, an amount of R 1 000 000,00 has been set.

‘Many tens of thousand’ lives, 78 500, could have been compensated for, should the State be found negligent, and if I was President, I would not have locked down, I would have geared our manufacturing sector to provide for the world needs and beyond, and kept SAA flying around the world.

All South Africa needed to do is restrict large public gatherings, play sport behind closed doors, advised the population on how to protect themselves, their elders, and those with compromised immune systems.

Allowed the communities to protect themselves, in exchange for the opportunity to maintain their livelihoods.

I invite my ‘white’ brothers and sisters to join us in the world of the African Spirit, the road ahead is going to be difficult for 90% of us, let the difference between a riot and a protest experienced in the USA today, not be our problem next year.

Let the African spirit convince the 98% of our population, united by the ‘lockdown’, that we were wrong to lockdown, the medical scientists had it wrong, their families have never been hungry, the CV pandemic and the vaccine will bring them wealth for another ten years, while the majority of South Africans will suffer from a depressed economy, unemployment, and our country will need to hide those dying from hunger, by attaching the CV label on their toe.

Cedric de la Harpe:

Your comments will be appreciated.