Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10,

Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.

Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10, Gauteng if you did not, make sure I do not die?

The South African Medical Industry should be complimented for the changes that they made in the Western Province on June 10, 2020,  we first look the results, the changes take place where the three lines intersect on this graph:

Western Cape changes SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10 2020.
Western Cape changes SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10 2020.

The Western Province death statistics, were in a spiral, before June 10, they have recovered, this is the message that should be transmitted to every corner of the world, the Medical staff needs to be celebrated. Cedric needs to be told, that Coronavirus will not necessarily kill him.     

Let us read, what the world needs to know about South Africa, and I have followed International News daily, and never such celebration has taken place.

The Western Cape has shifted to using high-flow nasal oxygen treatment on COVID-19 patients after the first six patients placed on ventilators died at Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town. The Times reports that lead of the provincial department of health Dr Keith Cloete explained the shift in strategy during a virtual press briefing.

Ventilators were used as one of the main treatments for critical care COVID-19 patients during the initial phases of the global pandemic, but the experience from Tygerberg Hospital prompted a rethink.

Cloete said 114 high care patients at Tygerberg, representing about 70% of high care patients at the hospital, were placed on high-flow nasal oxygen after meeting certain criteria for the treatment. He said that 70% of these people recovered from the disease.

“The experience of our team at Tygerberg was right at the beginning our first six COVID-19 patients that were admitted to critical care, all six were admitted for what is called early ventilation because at the time that was the recommended mode of treatment,” he said.

“What happened is all six of those patients died. At that time there was the first emerging studies of critical care success by using high flow nasal oxygen,” he said.

“So, the team at Tygerberg decided that the next seven patients that came in for critical care were placed on high-flow nasal oxygen. Six out of the seven recovered. That was a huge turnaround for the team at Tygerberg,” said Cloete.

He said the high-flow nasal oxygen treatment was so successful that they were considering moving patients from critical care and ICU wards to normal wards.

Full report in The Times

Why are the medical scientists not celebrating Tygerberg Hospital:

Very simply, the European and United States Medical Scientists, will all loudly claim that there is not scientific proof that the Tygerberg system will not result in deaths, very alternative to the defined WHO model that our Command Council promotes, is blocked by the system, removed from Social Media, never question by the formal media.

In South Africa, the answer is quite simple, the ‘State of Emergency’ system, I am not sure what we call the powers that are given to our Politicians to abuse our human rights, but it has allowed rampant Corruption to take place, in the name of saving my life, Gauteng MEC of Heath has been suspended for his alleged part in the Corruption, and the Eastern Cape has long been complained about due to the rampant corruption, and I quote from a CorruptionWatch article;   

A snapshot from the Eastern Cape demonstrates serious cause for concern: R10 million for scooters which may or may not be ambulances; handwritten invoices for R4.8 million for door-to-door campaigns during a “stay-at-home” lockdown; and rotten maize being distributed to hungry residents.

Recently, in a refreshingly candid interview, Professor Salim Abdool Karim traced the inability of Eastern Cape hospitals to meet the demand for Covid related care back to corruption and incompetence.

President Ramaphosa, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the chairperson of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, according to this article above, makes a statement that could transfer financial liability, from the Insurance Industry to the State Fiscus, like the Esidimeni Mental Care deaths, should corruption and incompetence be proved, it could be costly.

Let us look at the two provinces, Gauteng and Eastern Province, death rates, the impact on the Countries Death Rate is frightening;

Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.
Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.

Notwithstanding the Western Province success, huge increase in the death rate during the past week takes place, thousands of cases where victims have died, and I need to repeat an extract from this quoted article.       

“The experience of our team at Tygerberg was right at the beginning our first six COVID-19 patients that were admitted to critical care, all six were admitted for what is called early ventilation because at the time that was the recommended mode of treatment,” he said.

“What happened is all six of those patients died. At that time there was the first emerging studies of critical care success by using high flow nasal oxygen,” he said.

Mr. President, South Africa Medical systems, did not have the facilities or managerial ability, to control the virus, added this, any system manager, who gets involved  in corruption, filtering money that is earmarked for the health services, has chosen his comfortable livelihood, over thousands of Black Lives.     

Where does criminal liability end in the chain of command, but then, the tax payer is the one that will carry the financial liability, and the poverty black groups, the hunger, pain and suffering.

President Ramaphosa, the ANC Government has a confirmed track record of Corruption, a confirmed track record of incompetence,  therefore, as the Commanding Officer, to lockdown the economy and the people, to remove all opportunity for the people to provide for themselves, you and your Ministerial Council, needs to take all responsibility for all deaths, since June 30, unless the protocol implemented in the Western Cape was used nationally.   

May I repeat, Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10, Gauteng if you did not, make sure I do not die?

Cedric de la Harpe

 

  

   

Conclusions

Conclusions

The take home lessons are, first, that imposing stricter restrictions early in an epidemic than are necessary to prevent a health system being overwhelmed is likely to have little impact on the proportion of the population that is eventually infected, in the absence of a vaccine becoming available before restrictions are relaxed. And secondly, that a well-timed imposition of strict  restrictions for a fairly short period as the herd immunity threshold is approached can hugely reduce the overshoot of the eventually infected proportion above the HIT. States that imposed strict restrictions early on and then relaxed them may find their populations unwilling to see such measures reintroduced. However, the populations of states that introduced milder restrictions and are in reality pursuing a herd immunity strategy may find the imposition of strict restrictions for a short period bracketing the crossing of the HIT to be an attractive option. In either case, the serious illness and fatalities associated reaching the eventual level of infections can be very greatly reduced if elderly and vulnerable people are shielded from infection, as discussed in an earlier article.14

Nicholas Lewis 28 May 2020

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks,

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks, and the time has come for South Africa to celebrate the virus as it moves away. 

Remember May 24, 2020, I severely criticise the Western Cape management of the Coronavirus, based on the accumulated deaths, per 100000 of the population.

Coronavirus Graph
South Africa, Western Cape and Gauteng, may 24 deaths / 100000

My apologies, my presentation does no justice to the situation,, and eight weeks the graph shows very little change, other than Gauteng losing it.  

I still do not understand the movement.

Coronavirus 8 wks later
Coronavirus 8 wks later

 

My new research shows, that South Africa had achieved hide immunity threshold on May 24, 2020, and lockdown should have been removed.

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 24

Todays analysis shows that the WesternCape also achieves herd immunity threshold on May 24, directly contributing to South Africa’s overall HIT achievement.

WesternCape HIT
WesterCape Herd Immunity Threshold.

Those who brand this blog as FAKE NEWS would have not read any part of this document, for those of you who are still reading, the Hospitalisation and ICU improvement, confirms the virus is under control.

Hospitalisation and ICU improvement
WesternCape ICU
WesternCape ICU

If South Africa does not understand that we should never have locked down, that the model was intended for the rich, that there will be no more deaths than the system provided for, I am wasting my time.

May I link you to the model blog, which shows that the mortality rate will still be high, so lets get on with our lives;

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Cedric de la Harpe

One more blog will follow, as I analyse the reason for the Western Cape success, and speculate on why Gauteng is failing us.

Cdric

 

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold, has been reached, without their scientists responding,

SA Death per age:

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold has been reached without their scientists responding, I would love to analyse the Western Cape pandemic results, but first, for those admins who consider me to be spreading fake news, a little bit of my research.

Nic Lewis does a ‘peer review’ on theFerguson20 model,  (1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9,  that South Africa follows, here I discuss South Africa’s ‘inhomogeneity’ which results in HIT at 35%:

The following comment on page 4, of F20, clearly does not extend the results of this study to include South Africa as a candidate to follow Ferguson.

I quote from Page 4

We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here, except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made.

Suppression, while successful to date in China and South Korea, carries with it enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being in the short and longer-term.

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Instead we focus on feasibility, with a specific focus on what the likely healthcare system impact of the two approaches would be.

We present results for Great Britain (GB) and the United States (US), but they are equally applicable to most high-income countries.

Those who follow me, will know that I would normally use bold to highlight relevant details, in the above comment, everything is relevant, or maybe irrelevant?

I quote further:

Methods:

The Transmission Model:  Page 4:

Census data were used to define the age and household distribution size. Data on average class sizes and staff-student ratios were used to generate a synthetic population of schools distributed proportional to local population density. Data on the distribution of workplace size was used to generate workplaces with commuting distance data used to locate workplaces appropriately across the population. Individuals are assigned to each of these locations at the start of the simulation.

The aims and objectives of the Ferguson20 report, is a specific focus on what the likely health care system impact will be.

Nic Lewis, in his review, is critical of the model due to the study done on a homogenous group, I am critical of South Africa’s use, because firstly, it is only equally applicable to most high-income countries:       

South Africa is poor, in comparison to the model?

The USA has USD 105,99 trillion, Africa has USD 2,2 trillion, South Africa, only USD 0,77 trillion, and South Africa has a median wealth of USD 6476, before Covid, 55,5% of South African lived in poverty, some 30 million people.

Net Wealth
Net Wealth

Europe and USA, thanks to their wealth, not only has medical facilities and systems, that are ten times more superior than what South Africa has developed for the majority of our population, which has resulted in ageing communities, and more importantly, a system that these wealth Countries provide, and that is the hospitalisation and commitment to their citizens, this commitment does not exist in South Africa.

Europe and the USA, quite rightly, establish that their normal medical service that they provide to their population, will be overloaded, and therefore the model, proposes lockdown, to assist their medical service provision, by South Africa following this model, we embark on a new dimension of medical treatment for our black poverty population, a dimension that our country will never afford, not under our present Government system.              

Let us look at the population structures:

South Elderly Comparison
South Elderly Comparison

South Africa has a 6% elderly population, Europe 20%, this is sufficient reason for South Africa to reject the Ferguson20 model, but table 1 below, requires us to analyse above figures first:

SA Elderly Compared to USA
SA Elderly Compared to USA

Very importantly, we need to scrutinise the findings, that require lockdown in Europe and the USA, and question South Africa’s use thereof;

Aged Ferguson20 model
Aged Ferguson20 model

The percentage symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation, is what the study is based on, yet, South Africa, and the world, have been testing, whether symptomatic or not, thus our Government has failed by following the model, the Government has failed, by wasting our money by unnecessary, and extending lockdown, based on positive tests, whether symptomatic or not.

In the elderly age groups, 60>,  68,2% of symptomatic cases, required hospitalisation, the South African population demographics makes it impossible to follow the model.

   

SA Comparison Death Age
SA Comparison Death Age

South Africa has a high percentage of deaths in the 50 to 70 age group, in conflict with the model?

SA Death per age:
SA Death per age:

South Africa has failed the health of this age group, are we committed to remove this health threat? 

Why is our Age Death graph so different, this is  a topic that we will come back to, for now, get ready for the WesternCape Hide Immunity Threshold surprise that i will publish later today.

Cedric de la Harpe 

South Africa reached Covid herd immunity on May 17 2020

South Africa reached Covid herd immunity on May 17 2020, I have had this analysis on my computer for months, but was not comfortable to express my opinion, till I came across the Nic Lewis blog; 

 

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17

Daily the Medical Scientists will claim that they are still learning, I am still learning, starting with the Nic Lewis blog, and his first reference study, the  study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a fair extent, in the US and some other countries.

I believe that South Africa is following this model, and thus, during the next week I will be researching, and invite you to participate.

Cedric de la Harpe

(1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9