Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives, the prejudice to the majority of the world population though economic lockdown, will never be reversed.  Like influenza, it will return again and again, some of us have developed immunity, others will need vaccinations, others, no matter what they do, will die, in over a 100 years, there has been no scientific finding to prevent influenza, influenza comes and goes, influenza’s impact on life could be more severe, or less sever, you can shelter yourself from influenza, but it will find you, many will not have symptoms, other’s will die.      

  ABSTRACT:

I have always treated the Coronavirus Pandemic no differently to how I would treat influenza, when you do 1500 km of training for the 90 km Comrades Marathon, you learn to socially distance yourself, from influenza.

As tour operators, we have lost our livelihoods through the lockdown, and this addendum, BLM 03, is an addendum to our letter to President Ramaphosa,  to save the South African Tourism and Hospitality Industry, plus Taverns and Shebeens, this is one of the industries, that brought income into our poverty black communities, where we have involved ourselves in developing our people, and for this reason, I am unable to support economic lockdown.

My Conclusions:

The world will not smother Coronavirus, by locking down the people, by locking down the economy, the negative impact of the survivors, will never be reversed, and my challenge to any of you lockdown supporters, provide me with the ‘recovery-model’, that will restore the black livelihoods’, failing which, this conclusion will be deemed to have substance. 

FINDINGS

Singapore, South Korea and Australia, all Countries that are celebrated for testing and lockdown, compared to South Africa and Pakistan, reveals; 

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives,
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea 

Singapore has achieved a higher percentage of cases as percentage of the population, than South Africa, yet, one of the lowest death rates per 100000 in the world, some less than 30 times South Africa’s death rate, the Singapore death rate, is comparable to Asia and Oceania, and no reflection on South Africa.

Asia and Oceania, five of the ten Countries wth some 1,7-billion population, have achieved death rates far more impressive than China, Singapore, and South Korea, according to my conclusion, this is sufficient proof that Pakistan’s decision to remove Lockdown, was both economically and medically sound.  

Coronavirus cannot b defeated
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea

Pakistan removes Lockdown on May 09, Sweden, Japan, and Belarus, do not lockdown their economy, Belarus is perceived to be ‘not so honest’, I will restrict comment, but where necessary, I will use statistics to compare, had South Africa considered Japan, our economy may have improved while the world locked down.

Pakistan;

Pakistan PM removes lockdown on May 09, the virus escalates and leaves of its own accord, it will be back, but Pakistan is playing cricket in England.  

Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09
Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09 

Japan:

I quote from the Financial Times article dated April 23, 2020.

Robin Harding in Tokyo

The doctor leading Japan’s response to coronavirus has defended the decision not to implement a national lockdown, saying that elimination of the virus was impossible and it was necessary to limit the damage to the economy.

The comments by Shigeru Omi, chair of the expert committee that advises prime minister Shinzo Abe, highlight the country’s distinctive approach to the epidemic. Japan, along with Sweden, has sought to limit cases without putting a total freeze on economic activity or making social distancing mandatory. 

“Japan wants to bring down the number of cases but it’s impossible to bring it down to zero because of the nature of the disease,” said Dr Omi. He added that the severity of future waves would depend on how public behaviour adapted to the virus.

“Maybe there’ll be another small wave or a big wave depending on how people behave. I think that will continue for some time,” he said. “That’s why we want to balance the maintenance of socio-economic activity with managing this outbreak.”

The assumption that coronavirus is impossible to eliminate also informs Japan’s approach to testing. The country has carried out about 130,000 tests compared with more than 500,000 in South Korea, a country with less than half the population.

On April 23,  Japan declared that the virus would leave, and it would return, at that stage Japan had 146 deaths off 7865 positive cases, from July 07, to August 04, Japan has 38 Deaths, off 19,877 cases.

In this second wave, the cases reach new levels, yet the impact on mortalities is far less severs, we will see the same trend in Sweden, is it the virus that has weakened, or the population more able to process? 

Japan no lockdown achievement
Japan no lockdown achievement

Sweden;

Importantly we need to scrutinise Sweden’s positive infections, initially low in relation to high deaths, then much to the disgrace of the world, infections climbed, but we refuse to see that the deaths in relation of the infections decrease.         

And not how, without locking down, the infections typically influenza, are disappearing, this does not mean that it will not return, but the death rate will continue reducing.

The figure below is very interesting, when the virus arrives, it has a greater impact on the vulnerable and aged groups, through until May 14, 3939 deaths, during the 28303 positive infections, 13,9 % death rate per positive test,  following in June 5,45%, July 2,36% and August 2,19%.

Sweden No Lockdown
Sweden No Lockdown

Sweden, as a population, made the decision not to lockdown the economy, much to the disgust of their European neighbours.

The WHO Scientists, would by now, have Sweden in their research focus, and as we compare Sweden with Italy, France and Spain, Sweden had made a good decision, however, the Medical Scientists remained anxious because of Sweden’s escalating positive cases.     

Sweden death rate per 100000 population, has levelled off just above the European median line, with the United Kingdom still climbing, surely it was a better decision to keep their economy alive.

Sweden Median
Sweden Median

My Conclusion is statistically sound, and few medical scientists would be able to show statistical proof, that economic lockdown, had a positive impact on the number of lives saved, versus the impact on the livelihoods’ of the survivors?

Cedric de la Harpe     

     

  

South Africa should have followed the PM of Pakistan and removed Lockdown on May 09. 2020. BLM 02

South Africa should have followed the PM of Pakistan and removed Lockdown on May 09. 2020.

President Ramaphosa, on May 09, 2020, the PM of Pakistan removed lockdown because the informal traders were no longer able to feed their families,  this was amazing foresight and date, a great achievement, South Africa’s Black Livelihoods’ Matter concerns, requires you to remove the lockdown today, don’t prejudice our citizens till a Court Action rules, that your countries Black Livelihoods’ do Matter.   Please;

THIS IS ADDENDUM 02 TO LETTER DATED AUGUST 02, 2020

FINDINGS Addendum 02

1:  Pakistan Prime Minister, understands that the majority of his population, survive on the informal economy, where the population, as families, rely on the spin off of the formal economy moving past them, and that no Government in the world, has been able to manage, without the informal economic sector; 

Pakistan starts with the ‘world lockdown model’, and on May 09, 2020, the red line on the graph that follows, the PM removes all lockdown, and by May 18, the Court has negated all the restrictive legislation, the daily new cases follow the Sweden trend, then moves away.

Pakistan Coronavirus movement, when not locked down.
Pakistan Coronavirus movement, when not locked down.       

Before I comment, I show the impact of the PM’s decision to remove the lockdown, the graph below shows that the death rate, like in Sweden, follows the movement of the virus daily cases;

We look at Sweden, who did not lockdown in BLM03

Pakistan daily Deaths movement after removing lockdown.
Pakistan daily Deaths movement after removing lockdown.   

This first year scientist does not wish to get into the impact of the positive mindset, but asks the question of the experts, “Is it possible that, removing the lockdown, and allowing the poverty groups the opportunity to scrounge food, brought a small factor of an ability to fight the virus, as it past through the community.

How did South Africa, under strict lockdown, no cigarettes to help the immune system, and no alcohol to reduce the impact on the medical system, due to the South African population’s drunken behaviour, compare with the Pakistani curve?

Very simply, the Scientists who prescribed the Cure Model for the South African virus has failed our poverty population.

Pakistan Covid Deaths / 100000 population
Pakistan Covid Deaths / 100000 population

On May 08, 2020, I blogged on the Pakistani changes, and asked our President to follow, and I quote from the News Article:

The pandemic hit Pakistan in late February. Since then, officials have recorded more than 24,000 confirmed cases and nearly 600 deaths.

Prime Minister Imran Khan on Thursday chaired a meeting of top government officials where the decision was taken to relax restrictions on public and industrial activities.

“We know our curve of infections and deaths (from COVID-19) is gradually rising. But the rate of increase is relatively very low in Pakistan,” Khan said in his post-meeting nationally televised remarks.

In defending the decision, Khan said it is not possible for anyone to predict when and if Pakistan will experience a peak like that of Europe and other worst-hit areas.

“Why are we going ahead to ease the lockdown? Because people in our country, particularly daily wagers, small shopkeepers, taxi drivers, laborers, white-collar families are all facing an extremely difficult situation to feed their families,” Khan said.

I celebrated Khan as a cricketer, today I celebrate him as a leader of people.

President Ramaphosa, the PM of Pakistan made a decision to remove the lockdown, in the interests of the majority of the population who are informal traders, this model I submit, you should have followed.

I believe that the Pakistan Model should have been followed when lockdown was removed, if the model had any proven scientific reason not to follow, in terms of Section 32(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act 108 of 1996, I request details of why you have followed the ‘prescribed scientific model’?

President Ramaphosa, on behalf of all the poverty black people, that I normally have contact with, those who I am currently not allowed to visit, I request you to remove the lockdown totally, failure which, the prejudice and damage that our poverty black population have suffered, we will link you personally to those who have prescribed the ‘medical treatment’, when we ask them to answer to the damages suffered.

This Addendum BLM02 will be followed with BLM03 in due course.

Cedric de la Harpe