WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks,

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks, and the time has come for South Africa to celebrate the virus as it moves away. 

Remember May 24, 2020, I severely criticise the Western Cape management of the Coronavirus, based on the accumulated deaths, per 100000 of the population.

Coronavirus Graph
South Africa, Western Cape and Gauteng, may 24 deaths / 100000

My apologies, my presentation does no justice to the situation,, and eight weeks the graph shows very little change, other than Gauteng losing it.  

I still do not understand the movement.

Coronavirus 8 wks later
Coronavirus 8 wks later

 

My new research shows, that South Africa had achieved hide immunity threshold on May 24, 2020, and lockdown should have been removed.

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 24

Todays analysis shows that the WesternCape also achieves herd immunity threshold on May 24, directly contributing to South Africa’s overall HIT achievement.

WesternCape HIT
WesterCape Herd Immunity Threshold.

Those who brand this blog as FAKE NEWS would have not read any part of this document, for those of you who are still reading, the Hospitalisation and ICU improvement, confirms the virus is under control.

Hospitalisation and ICU improvement
WesternCape ICU
WesternCape ICU

If South Africa does not understand that we should never have locked down, that the model was intended for the rich, that there will be no more deaths than the system provided for, I am wasting my time.

May I link you to the model blog, which shows that the mortality rate will still be high, so lets get on with our lives;

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Cedric de la Harpe

One more blog will follow, as I analyse the reason for the Western Cape success, and speculate on why Gauteng is failing us.

Cdric

 

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives, the prejudice to the majority of the world population though economic lockdown, will never be reversed.  Like influenza, it will return again and again, some of us have developed immunity, others will need vaccinations, others, no matter what they do, will die, in over a 100 years, there has been no scientific finding to prevent influenza, influenza comes and goes, influenza’s impact on life could be more severe, or less sever, you can shelter yourself from influenza, but it will find you, many will not have symptoms, other’s will die.      

  ABSTRACT:

I have always treated the Coronavirus Pandemic no differently to how I would treat influenza, when you do 1500 km of training for the 90 km Comrades Marathon, you learn to socially distance yourself, from influenza.

As tour operators, we have lost our livelihoods through the lockdown, and this addendum, BLM 03, is an addendum to our letter to President Ramaphosa,  to save the South African Tourism and Hospitality Industry, plus Taverns and Shebeens, this is one of the industries, that brought income into our poverty black communities, where we have involved ourselves in developing our people, and for this reason, I am unable to support economic lockdown.

My Conclusions:

The world will not smother Coronavirus, by locking down the people, by locking down the economy, the negative impact of the survivors, will never be reversed, and my challenge to any of you lockdown supporters, provide me with the ‘recovery-model’, that will restore the black livelihoods’, failing which, this conclusion will be deemed to have substance. 

FINDINGS

Singapore, South Korea and Australia, all Countries that are celebrated for testing and lockdown, compared to South Africa and Pakistan, reveals; 

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives,
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea 

Singapore has achieved a higher percentage of cases as percentage of the population, than South Africa, yet, one of the lowest death rates per 100000 in the world, some less than 30 times South Africa’s death rate, the Singapore death rate, is comparable to Asia and Oceania, and no reflection on South Africa.

Asia and Oceania, five of the ten Countries wth some 1,7-billion population, have achieved death rates far more impressive than China, Singapore, and South Korea, according to my conclusion, this is sufficient proof that Pakistan’s decision to remove Lockdown, was both economically and medically sound.  

Coronavirus cannot b defeated
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea

Pakistan removes Lockdown on May 09, Sweden, Japan, and Belarus, do not lockdown their economy, Belarus is perceived to be ‘not so honest’, I will restrict comment, but where necessary, I will use statistics to compare, had South Africa considered Japan, our economy may have improved while the world locked down.

Pakistan;

Pakistan PM removes lockdown on May 09, the virus escalates and leaves of its own accord, it will be back, but Pakistan is playing cricket in England.  

Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09
Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09 

Japan:

I quote from the Financial Times article dated April 23, 2020.

Robin Harding in Tokyo

The doctor leading Japan’s response to coronavirus has defended the decision not to implement a national lockdown, saying that elimination of the virus was impossible and it was necessary to limit the damage to the economy.

The comments by Shigeru Omi, chair of the expert committee that advises prime minister Shinzo Abe, highlight the country’s distinctive approach to the epidemic. Japan, along with Sweden, has sought to limit cases without putting a total freeze on economic activity or making social distancing mandatory. 

“Japan wants to bring down the number of cases but it’s impossible to bring it down to zero because of the nature of the disease,” said Dr Omi. He added that the severity of future waves would depend on how public behaviour adapted to the virus.

“Maybe there’ll be another small wave or a big wave depending on how people behave. I think that will continue for some time,” he said. “That’s why we want to balance the maintenance of socio-economic activity with managing this outbreak.”

The assumption that coronavirus is impossible to eliminate also informs Japan’s approach to testing. The country has carried out about 130,000 tests compared with more than 500,000 in South Korea, a country with less than half the population.

On April 23,  Japan declared that the virus would leave, and it would return, at that stage Japan had 146 deaths off 7865 positive cases, from July 07, to August 04, Japan has 38 Deaths, off 19,877 cases.

In this second wave, the cases reach new levels, yet the impact on mortalities is far less severs, we will see the same trend in Sweden, is it the virus that has weakened, or the population more able to process? 

Japan no lockdown achievement
Japan no lockdown achievement

Sweden;

Importantly we need to scrutinise Sweden’s positive infections, initially low in relation to high deaths, then much to the disgrace of the world, infections climbed, but we refuse to see that the deaths in relation of the infections decrease.         

And not how, without locking down, the infections typically influenza, are disappearing, this does not mean that it will not return, but the death rate will continue reducing.

The figure below is very interesting, when the virus arrives, it has a greater impact on the vulnerable and aged groups, through until May 14, 3939 deaths, during the 28303 positive infections, 13,9 % death rate per positive test,  following in June 5,45%, July 2,36% and August 2,19%.

Sweden No Lockdown
Sweden No Lockdown

Sweden, as a population, made the decision not to lockdown the economy, much to the disgust of their European neighbours.

The WHO Scientists, would by now, have Sweden in their research focus, and as we compare Sweden with Italy, France and Spain, Sweden had made a good decision, however, the Medical Scientists remained anxious because of Sweden’s escalating positive cases.     

Sweden death rate per 100000 population, has levelled off just above the European median line, with the United Kingdom still climbing, surely it was a better decision to keep their economy alive.

Sweden Median
Sweden Median

My Conclusion is statistically sound, and few medical scientists would be able to show statistical proof, that economic lockdown, had a positive impact on the number of lives saved, versus the impact on the livelihoods’ of the survivors?

Cedric de la Harpe     

     

  

Dear President Ramaphosa Black Livelihoods’ Matter 00

Taste of Africa

Dear President Ramaphosa,

PLEASE SAVE SOUTH AFRICA TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY, PLUS BLACK TAVERNS AND SHEBEENS 

MOTIVATION FOR APPEAL:

BLM;      Black Livelihood’s Matter:   

South Africa, pre-democracy, and post-democracy, has always followed our big-brothers, the controllers of the ‘money-bags’, although I am not a supporter of this process, I do not blame the Politicians from both sides of the divide, for the economic turmoil.

South Africa, is suffering along with the world, as a result of the Coronavirus Pandemic, and I do not envy you, as you attempt to restore our economy back to some stability, in particular, at the lower end of the economic chain.

South African Tourism and Hospitality, including the black informal traders, the Taverns and Shebeens, generates IMPORT income, essential ensure that we recover some sort of positive balance of trade, which in turn will start to improve or finance ‘ratings’.

While we are all locked down, the World has taken the opportunity to introduce the New Industrial Revolution, with technology replacing the human, and the world talks about using the lockdown to start a new ‘green/eco’ economy, and South Africa activists are driving this novel new world.

The best advice that could be given to your Parliament, and the Coronavirus Command Council, when you get to proposals to recover the economy, is to consult with the Economists who will be more experienced than me, with regard to your available resources, this submission involves the South African Tourism and Hospitality Industry, and the Informal Traders, in particular the Taverns and Shebeen Industry.

South Africa has the Product, the beauty, the climate, the struggle history, the culture, the people, accommodation establishments, restaurants, entertainment venus, to supplement the product.

South Africa has a long track record of International Customers, who have purchased our product over many years, and we should take advantage of one of the Coronavirus new world movements, black livelihoods’ matter, to stimulate this industry.

Our Tourism and Hospitality plus Informal Tavern and Shebeen sector, as experienced, skilled Labour, waiting for you to press the button, no technological introduction, will be as easy, and as successful, all you need is to press on button.       

South Africa’s National Airliner, SAA has been thrown a life-line by the State, when I first heard the news, I celebrated, I believed that the plan was to get into the International Business and Tourism sector, one step ahead of the opposition.

My tourism business, visits to Soweto, Alexandra, and Native Villages, was brought to a halt, before lockdown, when the alcohol ban was lifted, I could resume my community activist involvement, preparing for the return of the International Visitors.

Our BRICS partners, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, are not trapped in the Europe and USA Scientific Model, and we should take the opportunity to set South Africa, as a leader in the new world after Coronavirus, while the world is forced to support the BLM protests, South Africa should show the world that Black Livelihoods’ Matter. 

BRICS
BRICS

President Cyril Ramaphosa, we have heard your repeated claim, that your Command Council has followed the Scientists, I see flaws in the model that our Country is following, flaws that have removed the majority of the population, from the opportunity to scrounge a  living, in what was a very difficult economy to survive in pre-Coronavirus, and our citizens  deserve answers.     

During the next eight days, I will publish Addendum to this letter, challenging the scientific advise that your Command Council is following, advise that is crippling the tourism and hospitality industry, advise  that is condemning our black population, historically oppressed and suppressed, into the informal economy for survival. The Coronavirus Management model that we are following, is driven by a fear factor, aimed to protect the elderly in the wealthy countries on the world, this model gives no consideration to our black population’s livelihood, already condemned through generations of suffering.

In terms of Section 32(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act 108 of 1996, this letter and the following addendum, will seek the information that will answer to the information/advice, information that will either confirm that your scientific model has substance, or, encourage you to restore our human rights, with compensation.

If any human rights abuses have taken place, that can be linked to a scientific model implemented to a population, where there is no scientific proof, that the targeted lives that the model wished to save, warranted the forced removal of the majority of our population, from their ability to provide food for the family, we need to recover the damages.      

I submit that the WHO and the World Medical Industry, through the Esidimeni incompetence and corruption, were very aware of the lack of facilities, the lack of competence, the practice of Corruption that we have spoken about for years, and where we still have no successful track record, that we can use State Funds in the interest of the people, the actions defined by the Scientific Model, only focusses on the ‘killing of the virus’ so that it could not return to Europe, and that South Africa, will achieve this for the European Scientific Model, while knowing the costs and risks to the majority of the population, those Black Livelihoods’ that do not matter.

President Ramaphosa, on May 09, 2020, the PM of Pakistan removed lockdown because the informal traders were no longer able to feed their families, one of the addendum that follows, will include this amazing foresight and achievement, South Africa’s Black Livelihoods’ Matter concerns, requires you to remove the lockdown today, don’t prejudice our citizens till a Court Action rules, that your countries Black Livelihoods’ do Matter.

Please;

Cedric de la Harpe           

Proof of attempted delivery
Proof of attempted delivery

August 02, 2020