South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold, has been reached, without their scientists responding,

SA Death per age:

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold has been reached without their scientists responding, I would love to analyse the Western Cape pandemic results, but first, for those admins who consider me to be spreading fake news, a little bit of my research.

Nic Lewis does a ‘peer review’ on theFerguson20 model,  (1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9,  that South Africa follows, here I discuss South Africa’s ‘inhomogeneity’ which results in HIT at 35%:

The following comment on page 4, of F20, clearly does not extend the results of this study to include South Africa as a candidate to follow Ferguson.

I quote from Page 4

We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here, except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made.

Suppression, while successful to date in China and South Korea, carries with it enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being in the short and longer-term.

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Instead we focus on feasibility, with a specific focus on what the likely healthcare system impact of the two approaches would be.

We present results for Great Britain (GB) and the United States (US), but they are equally applicable to most high-income countries.

Those who follow me, will know that I would normally use bold to highlight relevant details, in the above comment, everything is relevant, or maybe irrelevant?

I quote further:

Methods:

The Transmission Model:  Page 4:

Census data were used to define the age and household distribution size. Data on average class sizes and staff-student ratios were used to generate a synthetic population of schools distributed proportional to local population density. Data on the distribution of workplace size was used to generate workplaces with commuting distance data used to locate workplaces appropriately across the population. Individuals are assigned to each of these locations at the start of the simulation.

The aims and objectives of the Ferguson20 report, is a specific focus on what the likely health care system impact will be.

Nic Lewis, in his review, is critical of the model due to the study done on a homogenous group, I am critical of South Africa’s use, because firstly, it is only equally applicable to most high-income countries:       

South Africa is poor, in comparison to the model?

The USA has USD 105,99 trillion, Africa has USD 2,2 trillion, South Africa, only USD 0,77 trillion, and South Africa has a median wealth of USD 6476, before Covid, 55,5% of South African lived in poverty, some 30 million people.

Net Wealth
Net Wealth

Europe and USA, thanks to their wealth, not only has medical facilities and systems, that are ten times more superior than what South Africa has developed for the majority of our population, which has resulted in ageing communities, and more importantly, a system that these wealth Countries provide, and that is the hospitalisation and commitment to their citizens, this commitment does not exist in South Africa.

Europe and the USA, quite rightly, establish that their normal medical service that they provide to their population, will be overloaded, and therefore the model, proposes lockdown, to assist their medical service provision, by South Africa following this model, we embark on a new dimension of medical treatment for our black poverty population, a dimension that our country will never afford, not under our present Government system.              

Let us look at the population structures:

South Elderly Comparison
South Elderly Comparison

South Africa has a 6% elderly population, Europe 20%, this is sufficient reason for South Africa to reject the Ferguson20 model, but table 1 below, requires us to analyse above figures first:

SA Elderly Compared to USA
SA Elderly Compared to USA

Very importantly, we need to scrutinise the findings, that require lockdown in Europe and the USA, and question South Africa’s use thereof;

Aged Ferguson20 model
Aged Ferguson20 model

The percentage symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation, is what the study is based on, yet, South Africa, and the world, have been testing, whether symptomatic or not, thus our Government has failed by following the model, the Government has failed, by wasting our money by unnecessary, and extending lockdown, based on positive tests, whether symptomatic or not.

In the elderly age groups, 60>,  68,2% of symptomatic cases, required hospitalisation, the South African population demographics makes it impossible to follow the model.

   

SA Comparison Death Age
SA Comparison Death Age

South Africa has a high percentage of deaths in the 50 to 70 age group, in conflict with the model?

SA Death per age:
SA Death per age:

South Africa has failed the health of this age group, are we committed to remove this health threat? 

Why is our Age Death graph so different, this is  a topic that we will come back to, for now, get ready for the WesternCape Hide Immunity Threshold surprise that i will publish later today.

Cedric de la Harpe 

ABORIGINES SHORT STORY Two: COOL BURN

ABORIGINES SHORT STORY Two:

COOL BURN

South Africa has been on Coronavirus Lockdown for nearly four months, during this process I have accepted my Aboriginal heritage, my new spirit follows the Aboriginal from West Africa across the Atlantic, eventually reaching our destination, the Aboriginal of Australia.

Some Australians are the first Settlers, who are showing signs of an expression of having a conscience. My spirit guide instructs me to look for the ‘killing fields’, all I can find is the conversations taking place around the ‘Killing Times’, as researchers collate memories and history from both Settlers and Aborigines, typically of the white settler, some honesty is expressed, but the truth remains hidden.

Then, I find the following comment, which directs me to the acknowledgement that the Aborigine had created grasslands, by burning the forestland over the centuries, this leads to the principle of Cool Burn, and the evidence that the Aboriginal, were farmers, in the real sense .      

This restriction proved ineffective too as graziers openly flaunted these restrictions and ran their sheep and cattle deeper and deeper into the interior, ironically in some situations onto grasslands the Aboriginals had created over the centuries by burning forestland.

Cool Burn
Col Burn

Research papers, typically would go though great detail, as the Settlers attempt to hide the truth, the massacres of the Aborigines are admitted to, the numbers never, the reasons always blame the Aborigine. Many Settler Families take years before they release a little bit of what they know about how their families were involved in the massacres, no-one talks about how their families secured their wealth.

In this latest move towards releasing the guilt conscience, almost no Aborigine voice is heard, if interaction takes place, they will extend their love and thanks, they will never express any antipathy towards the perpetrators of the evil, they fear repercussions, maybe death.

In South Africa, no antipathy is expressed by the Aboriginal, fears of repercussions is the continued exclusion from the formal economy, if antipathy does not exist, no reparation is possible, is what I have written about for years, today, I understand the Aboriginal reluctance, I question whether I am doing the right thing, by trying to generate antipathy.

I was cultivated to see the African, mainly as uncivilised, inferior, use descriptions in the diminutive, the boy, the girl, never as an adult, never as a human. While the language is biased, while hidden in the cultivated mind, is the intention of the language used, the concept that the Black, the Aborigines are inferior, antipathy is impossible.        

Hidden in all legislation, in all western academic writings, the text, is the ‘white’ bias thinking, that no matter how much ‘talking’ is being done between black and white,the use of the, English language, the bias that the nouns, the adjectives, the adverbs, tell different stories to different people, then I discovered, that the Aborigines used Cool Burn to manage their land, and suddenly, not only do I see the atrocities by the Settler through different eyes, this allows be to see superiority in the Aboriginal, superiority that I was only able to see, in the West African, the Mali, Mansa Musa, Timbuktu, legends.              

Cool Burn:

The Aboriginal farmed with what God had given them, the flora and fauna, throughout the centuries, they saved the flora and fauna, for the flora and fauna.

For as long as the human managed the flora and fauna, in the interests of the flora and fauna, the human’s food chain would be ensured, and the ecosystem would have looked like Australia when the Settlers arrived.

The Aborigine, would employ Cool Burn, when wind and weather conditions were favourable, a cool burn that allowed animals, including beetles and ant colonies time to escape. Young trees survived, the burnt grass kept its shape, and the grass seeds remained intact for regrowth.    

The Aboriginal people consider the trees’ canopy “sacred”, so a Cool Burn preserves the canopy of trees to achieve the following;

Protection and provision. The canopy provides shade, fruit flowers and seeds. It allows animals to come back quickly.

 

Refuge from the fire. When there’s a Cool Burn, insects and other small animals crawl up the tree to safety.

 

Preservation of the tree cycle. With a Cool Burn, the canopy remains intact the, tree does not miss its cyclic renewal, and preserves the tree cycle

 

Trigger for germination. The smoke from a cool burn goes through the canopy and triggers off a reaction for seeds up there to germinate.

 

During a Cool Burn, bush turkeys hunt for bugs and insects at the fire line while hawks scour it for small animals.

 

Animals know how to protect themselves from the Cool Burn: ants and snakes go deep down into their nests and burrows, kangaroos find safe spots on rocky outcrops.

 

New grass grows only weeks after a Cool Burn, it holds the soil together and provides a source of food for wombats, wallabies and native birds.

 

Wallaby, birds and other animals bathe in the cool ash to cleanse themselves of lice.

Sacred Grounds:

The Aboriginal people, live a lifestyle embodied in humanity, where God is supreme, where God is in all of us, including the flora and fauna. Within a family or clan structure, the most senior, the elder, is the God, my father would be respected as God, Unkulunkulu, when his father is present, his father is respected as the senior God, Unkulunkulu-Unkulunkulu.       

For this reason, family grave sites are sacred, and visited during cultural celebrations, community leaders grave sites, would be sacred to the entire community.

These cultural grave sites that the Aboriginal celebrates as sacred, whether in South Africa, Australia, or the Americas, the Settler found great difficulty in understanding, the Aboriginal’s anger, at our lack of respect for their sacred grounds, yet the entire Christian world, reacts to Turkey, moving Hagia Sophia from a status of Museum, visited by millions every year, to a Mosque status, which will still allow the millions to pay their respects.

Reparation:

Two months back, I had a reparation plan for the Australian Aborigine, a financial package that the world has never been presented with, the package would have moved the entire Aboriginal into the top 20% wealth bracket.

No reparation package paid to ‘black’ communities who have been severely prejudiced, has restored the Aboriginal, to the level where the Aboriginal descendants, will ever live the sustainable lifestyle, unless the perpetrators of the evil, acknowledge the evil, step one towards giving value to any financial reparation package.

While the systemic bias, that allowed the evil to remove the opportunities from people defined as non-white in 1681, while we allow the systemic bias mindsets, that allowed the economic segregation to continue through to today, no amount of money will restore the dignity and opportunity, that will bring reparation, if the present created social stratification, is not reversed.

Add your log to the fire, if it is placed in the right position, it will be a Cool Burn, you will be able to share the heat of your log, do not be afraid that your log will burn hot, it took our Aboriginal ancestors centuries to achieve the necessary skills.

Cedric de la Harpe