Domestic Conflict Resolution needs Courageous Conversations

Domestic Conflict Resolution needs Courageous Conversations if we ever wish to reduce gender violence.

Courageous Conversations
Courageous Conversations

Two weeks back I start walking the streets of Soweto, promoting the Ubuntu Food Chain, and Human Dictate, and the following ‘Women’s Physical Security’ ‘world map’ attracts attention,  I included it in earlier writings, where I simply attached blame to the Coloniser, my mindset did not try to analyse it.

Domestic Violence Resolution, Woman' Physical Security;
Woman’ Physical Security;

I had questioned why domestic violence is prevalent in the previously colonised countries, and during our discussion, I make the comment that I personally have only been aware of one domestic violence issue during sixteen years, even though I have watched carefully.

One of my ‘brothers’ of ten years, ‘R’, makes the following comment, “There are problems, but the police, the lawyers, the social counsellors, do not help, on the TV, all these ‘not in my name’ activists, make a lot of money, but do not come and talk to the people.”    

We are in the process of forming the Ubuntu Food Chain executive, and Domestic Conflict Resolution becomes our priority,     

The above ‘world map’ that the women in Europe, is at the least risk of violence, followed by the women USA, Australia, and the south of South America.

Our first question why Argentine, Paraguay, and Chile’s women’s physical security, is the same shade of  green as the USA and Australia?

I return home seeking an answer to this question, and arranging to return two days later to launch our Domestic Conflict Resolution forum, and invite the group to invite other elders to join our next meeting.

I do my research, and structure the suggested process, on how the forum could operate. 

According to my Google search;

Domestic violence in Argentina is a serious issue. … However, the policies of Argentina have been criticised for being weak, primarily due to focusing on civil, rather than criminal dealing with this form of violence, and for stressing conciliation between victim and perpetrator.

Focusing on civil rather than criminal dealing with domestic violence, is considered to be a weak policy of control, by the Western Capitalist Democracy, when the principle of conciliation between victim and perpetrator, is African culture, and practiced by many other cultural groups.

The Australian white woman’s risk of violence, is 40 times less than the Aborigine woman, causing the darker shade of green.

Domestic violence, in the Aboriginal group, has escalated during the past twenty years. The Australian State, is considered to be a ‘nanny state’, every aspect of  the populations daily lives are controlled, the Aborigine group, is the minority of the population, why has Australia as a nanny state, not been able to achieve an equal state of woman security for all, for my answer, I quote extract from Google;

There are multiple complex and diverse factors contributing to the high levels and severity of family violence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. It must be clearly understood that the causes do not derive from Aboriginal culture. Family violence is not part of Aboriginal culture. However, the disadvantage, dispossession and attempted destruction of Aboriginal cultures since colonisation have meant that family violence has proliferated in Aboriginal communities.

I return to Soweto on Thursday 27, with a very clear understanding of the need to follow the Argentina model, very simply, we will introduce the concept, and invite those who feel like getting into conflict, to approach us.

I have heard that we have a number of ‘elders’ who wish to participate, Human Dictate, Ubuntu Food Chain, needs to be put on ice.

PAPGELD

I walk into a new world, the world of ‘papgeld’ how could I never have seen this media circus, a media circus that encourages the support of the mother’s maintenance claim, and a media circus  that makes their income off the ridiculing and defaming the father.

‘R’ has fifteen people, woman and men, who would like to get involved in the Domestic Conflict Resolution, all as victims, all been in conflict for many years, silently, the police, the lawyers, the social counsellors, the courts, all performing according to the western democratic norms, done their job, taken their money, given the man the maximum sentence, and in most cases, the father and the mother are left in conflict.

‘R’ becomes victim 1, in 2009 he is jailed 2,400 hours, to serve ‘periodic’ 1,000 suspended, a judgement to pay R 26 000.00 arrears maintenance, and for very R 3 000.00 he paid, 20 hours would be reduced from his suspended sentence.

Hidden in the scenario is the family home, registered in the name of the father, occupied by the mother, value, maybe R 2-million, not part of the divorce settlement, only a brief media mention, why is his never part of the Court proceedings? 

I take the ‘R’ files home with me, I read, I re-read, the Magistrates, the Judges, all following the legal structure, applying the western capitalist law to an African culture that is in conflict, judgements that should never have occurred, domestic conflict that originated in 1995, three children cultivated in the domestic violence for fifteen years, a family in conflict. 

To all the “Not in my Name” activists, your activism should not be directed at ‘keeping our streets safe’, we should all be at the family court, helping the awaiting trail prisoners at sun-city, the gender violence conflict is not on the street, it is in the home, hidden by embarrassment, hidden by he stigma attached to the ‘brand’, don’t be afraid to support the father, it may save the wife and children.

Cedric,

Domestic Conflict Resolution Courageous Conversations:

Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10,

Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.

Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10, Gauteng if you did not, make sure I do not die?

The South African Medical Industry should be complimented for the changes that they made in the Western Province on June 10, 2020,  we first look the results, the changes take place where the three lines intersect on this graph:

Western Cape changes SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10 2020.
Western Cape changes SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10 2020.

The Western Province death statistics, were in a spiral, before June 10, they have recovered, this is the message that should be transmitted to every corner of the world, the Medical staff needs to be celebrated. Cedric needs to be told, that Coronavirus will not necessarily kill him.     

Let us read, what the world needs to know about South Africa, and I have followed International News daily, and never such celebration has taken place.

The Western Cape has shifted to using high-flow nasal oxygen treatment on COVID-19 patients after the first six patients placed on ventilators died at Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town. The Times reports that lead of the provincial department of health Dr Keith Cloete explained the shift in strategy during a virtual press briefing.

Ventilators were used as one of the main treatments for critical care COVID-19 patients during the initial phases of the global pandemic, but the experience from Tygerberg Hospital prompted a rethink.

Cloete said 114 high care patients at Tygerberg, representing about 70% of high care patients at the hospital, were placed on high-flow nasal oxygen after meeting certain criteria for the treatment. He said that 70% of these people recovered from the disease.

“The experience of our team at Tygerberg was right at the beginning our first six COVID-19 patients that were admitted to critical care, all six were admitted for what is called early ventilation because at the time that was the recommended mode of treatment,” he said.

“What happened is all six of those patients died. At that time there was the first emerging studies of critical care success by using high flow nasal oxygen,” he said.

“So, the team at Tygerberg decided that the next seven patients that came in for critical care were placed on high-flow nasal oxygen. Six out of the seven recovered. That was a huge turnaround for the team at Tygerberg,” said Cloete.

He said the high-flow nasal oxygen treatment was so successful that they were considering moving patients from critical care and ICU wards to normal wards.

Full report in The Times

Why are the medical scientists not celebrating Tygerberg Hospital:

Very simply, the European and United States Medical Scientists, will all loudly claim that there is not scientific proof that the Tygerberg system will not result in deaths, very alternative to the defined WHO model that our Command Council promotes, is blocked by the system, removed from Social Media, never question by the formal media.

In South Africa, the answer is quite simple, the ‘State of Emergency’ system, I am not sure what we call the powers that are given to our Politicians to abuse our human rights, but it has allowed rampant Corruption to take place, in the name of saving my life, Gauteng MEC of Heath has been suspended for his alleged part in the Corruption, and the Eastern Cape has long been complained about due to the rampant corruption, and I quote from a CorruptionWatch article;   

A snapshot from the Eastern Cape demonstrates serious cause for concern: R10 million for scooters which may or may not be ambulances; handwritten invoices for R4.8 million for door-to-door campaigns during a “stay-at-home” lockdown; and rotten maize being distributed to hungry residents.

Recently, in a refreshingly candid interview, Professor Salim Abdool Karim traced the inability of Eastern Cape hospitals to meet the demand for Covid related care back to corruption and incompetence.

President Ramaphosa, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the chairperson of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, according to this article above, makes a statement that could transfer financial liability, from the Insurance Industry to the State Fiscus, like the Esidimeni Mental Care deaths, should corruption and incompetence be proved, it could be costly.

Let us look at the two provinces, Gauteng and Eastern Province, death rates, the impact on the Countries Death Rate is frightening;

Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.
Comparison with Western Cape Coronavirus Model.

Notwithstanding the Western Province success, huge increase in the death rate during the past week takes place, thousands of cases where victims have died, and I need to repeat an extract from this quoted article.       

“The experience of our team at Tygerberg was right at the beginning our first six COVID-19 patients that were admitted to critical care, all six were admitted for what is called early ventilation because at the time that was the recommended mode of treatment,” he said.

“What happened is all six of those patients died. At that time there was the first emerging studies of critical care success by using high flow nasal oxygen,” he said.

Mr. President, South Africa Medical systems, did not have the facilities or managerial ability, to control the virus, added this, any system manager, who gets involved  in corruption, filtering money that is earmarked for the health services, has chosen his comfortable livelihood, over thousands of Black Lives.     

Where does criminal liability end in the chain of command, but then, the tax payer is the one that will carry the financial liability, and the poverty black groups, the hunger, pain and suffering.

President Ramaphosa, the ANC Government has a confirmed track record of Corruption, a confirmed track record of incompetence,  therefore, as the Commanding Officer, to lockdown the economy and the people, to remove all opportunity for the people to provide for themselves, you and your Ministerial Council, needs to take all responsibility for all deaths, since June 30, unless the protocol implemented in the Western Cape was used nationally.   

May I repeat, Western Cape changed the SA Covid treatment protocol on June 10, Gauteng if you did not, make sure I do not die?

Cedric de la Harpe

 

  

   

AC Log Day 001 Ubuntu Food Chain finally takes root

Ubuntu Food Chain the future

AC Log Day 001, It is Friday August 14, I consider the 2020 Coronavirus first wave, to have past, my period is defined as After Coronavirus, “AC”, I refuse to define as a new world, a novel world, or any other description, that attempts to hide the impact of the economic lockdown, on our black ‘poverty’ population.

Years ago I launched the “Ubuntu Food Chain”, the aim is to return the Food Chain to the African Population, the interaction fell of ‘deaf-ears’, the Ubuntu Food Chain, was a direct attack on the food chain controlled by the ‘white capitalist monopoly’, and this has not taken place in South Africa yet, not in 368 years, as a tour operator, I will be unemployed for most of the next year, today I commit to walking the streets of Soweto at least one day per week, listening to those on the street, talking to those eager to listen.

AC Log Day 001, Ubuntu Food Chain the future
Ubuntu Food Chain the future

My granddaughter had recently bumped her other grandad’s car, she was committed to have the car repaired, her quote from the suburban panel-beater, was R 7,000 her excess is R 5,000, is my first stop is my Soweto Panel-beater Johannes, mobile number is 079 297 9343, where the price is 25% of the suburbs, and the quality, just as good. My family and friends have the normal ‘white’ reservations about taking their car into Soweto, let alone leaving it overnight, in the panel-beaters care, so if any of you need  a panel-beater, I will be the intermediate with pleasure.

From Johannes I start my days walk, I am looking for the Ubuntu Food Chain leaders, Angie is not home, she is in Vereeniging, burying her Mother’s in-law, and acquaintance greets me, happy to see me again, we discuss the CV, the lockdown, she asks me if I have heard about the illuminate, Makekoe has heard that one person is going to rule the world, she tells me he is the pope, but not the church pope, she has seen the pyramid, the 13 richest people in the world, the next level, names and numbers.

Charlie, my Shebeen owner friend, is sitting watching the news, his complaint was that SA Breweries claimed not to have stock to sell to him due to the initial lockdown, they needed to go to Makro, I hear this same story a few streets down.

I have always used the SAB distribution into the Townships and Rural Native areas, as my example of the Ubuntu Food Chain, the removal of the intermediate link, and today I realise how the system is gong to remove the economy from the black townships and native areas, simply by removing the direct supply chain between SAB and the population.

During the Apartheid era, the Government used alcohol to destabilise the African population, and the results can be found in every statistic, in order to achieve this, SA Breweries had the permission to deliver direct to the ‘illegal’ shebeen, where the main consumption takes place, a strength that would make it impossible for opposition brewers to compete in South Africa.

SA Breweries built their wealth as part of the Apartheid destabilisation process, and today, they will be the vehicle that removes R 10 of every bottle of beer consumed in the Townships and Native areas, from their economy.

Many politicians, many black businessmen, have made claims over the years, that their grandparents had  educated them through the income generated through the sale of alcohol. These politicians and businessmen, do not realise that more important, was the exposure to the business principles, and the customers.                     

I pass Mohamed’s house with reservations, he is old, and not very healthy, I fear that the CV may have taken him, he is alive, I joke with his wife, “If he is still alive, we need not fear the virus”. Mohamed takes me a few streets down to meet ‘Inteakso’, he is an interesting man, and possibly one that I am looking for, it is Friday, he is on his way to the Mosque, and I arrange to return next Thursday.

I pass the late T-Man’s place, my favoured drinking spot between 2004 and 2010, Charles is standing at the gate, we talk for 30 minutes, we discuss the UFC, we discuss the shebeen, we discuss the CV, “Cedric I have a few guys you must talk to”, I have achieved my day 1 mission.

I pass Rudy’s place, his young daughter, about 7, had just died from cancer, the old-school teacher, Didi, she is not home, Manqoba, he is repairing a car elsewhere, Aunty Pat, is sill with her niece,  can go home, satisfied with Day 1.

For a greater understanding of my AC Log Day 001 thought pattern, check my personal weblink below.

Cedric de la Harpe                            

                   

Conclusions

Conclusions

The take home lessons are, first, that imposing stricter restrictions early in an epidemic than are necessary to prevent a health system being overwhelmed is likely to have little impact on the proportion of the population that is eventually infected, in the absence of a vaccine becoming available before restrictions are relaxed. And secondly, that a well-timed imposition of strict  restrictions for a fairly short period as the herd immunity threshold is approached can hugely reduce the overshoot of the eventually infected proportion above the HIT. States that imposed strict restrictions early on and then relaxed them may find their populations unwilling to see such measures reintroduced. However, the populations of states that introduced milder restrictions and are in reality pursuing a herd immunity strategy may find the imposition of strict restrictions for a short period bracketing the crossing of the HIT to be an attractive option. In either case, the serious illness and fatalities associated reaching the eventual level of infections can be very greatly reduced if elderly and vulnerable people are shielded from infection, as discussed in an earlier article.14

Nicholas Lewis 28 May 2020

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks,

WESTERNCAPE from Coronavirus Epicentre to hide immunity threshold in a few weeks, and the time has come for South Africa to celebrate the virus as it moves away. 

Remember May 24, 2020, I severely criticise the Western Cape management of the Coronavirus, based on the accumulated deaths, per 100000 of the population.

Coronavirus Graph
South Africa, Western Cape and Gauteng, may 24 deaths / 100000

My apologies, my presentation does no justice to the situation,, and eight weeks the graph shows very little change, other than Gauteng losing it.  

I still do not understand the movement.

Coronavirus 8 wks later
Coronavirus 8 wks later

 

My new research shows, that South Africa had achieved hide immunity threshold on May 24, 2020, and lockdown should have been removed.

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 24

Todays analysis shows that the WesternCape also achieves herd immunity threshold on May 24, directly contributing to South Africa’s overall HIT achievement.

WesternCape HIT
WesterCape Herd Immunity Threshold.

Those who brand this blog as FAKE NEWS would have not read any part of this document, for those of you who are still reading, the Hospitalisation and ICU improvement, confirms the virus is under control.

Hospitalisation and ICU improvement
WesternCape ICU
WesternCape ICU

If South Africa does not understand that we should never have locked down, that the model was intended for the rich, that there will be no more deaths than the system provided for, I am wasting my time.

May I link you to the model blog, which shows that the mortality rate will still be high, so lets get on with our lives;

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Cedric de la Harpe

One more blog will follow, as I analyse the reason for the Western Cape success, and speculate on why Gauteng is failing us.

Cdric

 

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold, has been reached, without their scientists responding,

SA Death per age:

South Africa’s Coronavirus HIT herd immunity threshold has been reached without their scientists responding, I would love to analyse the Western Cape pandemic results, but first, for those admins who consider me to be spreading fake news, a little bit of my research.

Nic Lewis does a ‘peer review’ on theFerguson20 model,  (1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9,  that South Africa follows, here I discuss South Africa’s ‘inhomogeneity’ which results in HIT at 35%:

The following comment on page 4, of F20, clearly does not extend the results of this study to include South Africa as a candidate to follow Ferguson.

I quote from Page 4

We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here, except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made.

Suppression, while successful to date in China and South Korea, carries with it enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being in the short and longer-term.

Mitigation will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality may therefore still be high.

Instead we focus on feasibility, with a specific focus on what the likely healthcare system impact of the two approaches would be.

We present results for Great Britain (GB) and the United States (US), but they are equally applicable to most high-income countries.

Those who follow me, will know that I would normally use bold to highlight relevant details, in the above comment, everything is relevant, or maybe irrelevant?

I quote further:

Methods:

The Transmission Model:  Page 4:

Census data were used to define the age and household distribution size. Data on average class sizes and staff-student ratios were used to generate a synthetic population of schools distributed proportional to local population density. Data on the distribution of workplace size was used to generate workplaces with commuting distance data used to locate workplaces appropriately across the population. Individuals are assigned to each of these locations at the start of the simulation.

The aims and objectives of the Ferguson20 report, is a specific focus on what the likely health care system impact will be.

Nic Lewis, in his review, is critical of the model due to the study done on a homogenous group, I am critical of South Africa’s use, because firstly, it is only equally applicable to most high-income countries:       

South Africa is poor, in comparison to the model?

The USA has USD 105,99 trillion, Africa has USD 2,2 trillion, South Africa, only USD 0,77 trillion, and South Africa has a median wealth of USD 6476, before Covid, 55,5% of South African lived in poverty, some 30 million people.

Net Wealth
Net Wealth

Europe and USA, thanks to their wealth, not only has medical facilities and systems, that are ten times more superior than what South Africa has developed for the majority of our population, which has resulted in ageing communities, and more importantly, a system that these wealth Countries provide, and that is the hospitalisation and commitment to their citizens, this commitment does not exist in South Africa.

Europe and the USA, quite rightly, establish that their normal medical service that they provide to their population, will be overloaded, and therefore the model, proposes lockdown, to assist their medical service provision, by South Africa following this model, we embark on a new dimension of medical treatment for our black poverty population, a dimension that our country will never afford, not under our present Government system.              

Let us look at the population structures:

South Elderly Comparison
South Elderly Comparison

South Africa has a 6% elderly population, Europe 20%, this is sufficient reason for South Africa to reject the Ferguson20 model, but table 1 below, requires us to analyse above figures first:

SA Elderly Compared to USA
SA Elderly Compared to USA

Very importantly, we need to scrutinise the findings, that require lockdown in Europe and the USA, and question South Africa’s use thereof;

Aged Ferguson20 model
Aged Ferguson20 model

The percentage symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation, is what the study is based on, yet, South Africa, and the world, have been testing, whether symptomatic or not, thus our Government has failed by following the model, the Government has failed, by wasting our money by unnecessary, and extending lockdown, based on positive tests, whether symptomatic or not.

In the elderly age groups, 60>,  68,2% of symptomatic cases, required hospitalisation, the South African population demographics makes it impossible to follow the model.

   

SA Comparison Death Age
SA Comparison Death Age

South Africa has a high percentage of deaths in the 50 to 70 age group, in conflict with the model?

SA Death per age:
SA Death per age:

South Africa has failed the health of this age group, are we committed to remove this health threat? 

Why is our Age Death graph so different, this is  a topic that we will come back to, for now, get ready for the WesternCape Hide Immunity Threshold surprise that i will publish later today.

Cedric de la Harpe 

South Africa reached Covid herd immunity on May 17 2020

South Africa reached Covid herd immunity on May 17 2020, I have had this analysis on my computer for months, but was not comfortable to express my opinion, till I came across the Nic Lewis blog; 

 

South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17
South Africa reaches herd immunity on May 17

Daily the Medical Scientists will claim that they are still learning, I am still learning, starting with the Nic Lewis blog, and his first reference study, the  study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a fair extent, in the US and some other countries.

I believe that South Africa is following this model, and thus, during the next week I will be researching, and invite you to participate.

Cedric de la Harpe

(1).2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives, the prejudice to the majority of the world population though economic lockdown, will never be reversed.  Like influenza, it will return again and again, some of us have developed immunity, others will need vaccinations, others, no matter what they do, will die, in over a 100 years, there has been no scientific finding to prevent influenza, influenza comes and goes, influenza’s impact on life could be more severe, or less sever, you can shelter yourself from influenza, but it will find you, many will not have symptoms, other’s will die.      

  ABSTRACT:

I have always treated the Coronavirus Pandemic no differently to how I would treat influenza, when you do 1500 km of training for the 90 km Comrades Marathon, you learn to socially distance yourself, from influenza.

As tour operators, we have lost our livelihoods through the lockdown, and this addendum, BLM 03, is an addendum to our letter to President Ramaphosa,  to save the South African Tourism and Hospitality Industry, plus Taverns and Shebeens, this is one of the industries, that brought income into our poverty black communities, where we have involved ourselves in developing our people, and for this reason, I am unable to support economic lockdown.

My Conclusions:

The world will not smother Coronavirus, by locking down the people, by locking down the economy, the negative impact of the survivors, will never be reversed, and my challenge to any of you lockdown supporters, provide me with the ‘recovery-model’, that will restore the black livelihoods’, failing which, this conclusion will be deemed to have substance. 

FINDINGS

Singapore, South Korea and Australia, all Countries that are celebrated for testing and lockdown, compared to South Africa and Pakistan, reveals; 

Coronavirus cannot be defeated lockdown does not save lives,
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea 

Singapore has achieved a higher percentage of cases as percentage of the population, than South Africa, yet, one of the lowest death rates per 100000 in the world, some less than 30 times South Africa’s death rate, the Singapore death rate, is comparable to Asia and Oceania, and no reflection on South Africa.

Asia and Oceania, five of the ten Countries wth some 1,7-billion population, have achieved death rates far more impressive than China, Singapore, and South Korea, according to my conclusion, this is sufficient proof that Pakistan’s decision to remove Lockdown, was both economically and medically sound.  

Coronavirus cannot b defeated
Coronavirus cannot be defeated, Singapore & South Korea

Pakistan removes Lockdown on May 09, Sweden, Japan, and Belarus, do not lockdown their economy, Belarus is perceived to be ‘not so honest’, I will restrict comment, but where necessary, I will use statistics to compare, had South Africa considered Japan, our economy may have improved while the world locked down.

Pakistan;

Pakistan PM removes lockdown on May 09, the virus escalates and leaves of its own accord, it will be back, but Pakistan is playing cricket in England.  

Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09
Pakistan Remove Lockdown May 09 

Japan:

I quote from the Financial Times article dated April 23, 2020.

Robin Harding in Tokyo

The doctor leading Japan’s response to coronavirus has defended the decision not to implement a national lockdown, saying that elimination of the virus was impossible and it was necessary to limit the damage to the economy.

The comments by Shigeru Omi, chair of the expert committee that advises prime minister Shinzo Abe, highlight the country’s distinctive approach to the epidemic. Japan, along with Sweden, has sought to limit cases without putting a total freeze on economic activity or making social distancing mandatory. 

“Japan wants to bring down the number of cases but it’s impossible to bring it down to zero because of the nature of the disease,” said Dr Omi. He added that the severity of future waves would depend on how public behaviour adapted to the virus.

“Maybe there’ll be another small wave or a big wave depending on how people behave. I think that will continue for some time,” he said. “That’s why we want to balance the maintenance of socio-economic activity with managing this outbreak.”

The assumption that coronavirus is impossible to eliminate also informs Japan’s approach to testing. The country has carried out about 130,000 tests compared with more than 500,000 in South Korea, a country with less than half the population.

On April 23,  Japan declared that the virus would leave, and it would return, at that stage Japan had 146 deaths off 7865 positive cases, from July 07, to August 04, Japan has 38 Deaths, off 19,877 cases.

In this second wave, the cases reach new levels, yet the impact on mortalities is far less severs, we will see the same trend in Sweden, is it the virus that has weakened, or the population more able to process? 

Japan no lockdown achievement
Japan no lockdown achievement

Sweden;

Importantly we need to scrutinise Sweden’s positive infections, initially low in relation to high deaths, then much to the disgrace of the world, infections climbed, but we refuse to see that the deaths in relation of the infections decrease.         

And not how, without locking down, the infections typically influenza, are disappearing, this does not mean that it will not return, but the death rate will continue reducing.

The figure below is very interesting, when the virus arrives, it has a greater impact on the vulnerable and aged groups, through until May 14, 3939 deaths, during the 28303 positive infections, 13,9 % death rate per positive test,  following in June 5,45%, July 2,36% and August 2,19%.

Sweden No Lockdown
Sweden No Lockdown

Sweden, as a population, made the decision not to lockdown the economy, much to the disgust of their European neighbours.

The WHO Scientists, would by now, have Sweden in their research focus, and as we compare Sweden with Italy, France and Spain, Sweden had made a good decision, however, the Medical Scientists remained anxious because of Sweden’s escalating positive cases.     

Sweden death rate per 100000 population, has levelled off just above the European median line, with the United Kingdom still climbing, surely it was a better decision to keep their economy alive.

Sweden Median
Sweden Median

My Conclusion is statistically sound, and few medical scientists would be able to show statistical proof, that economic lockdown, had a positive impact on the number of lives saved, versus the impact on the livelihoods’ of the survivors?

Cedric de la Harpe     

     

  

ABORIGINES SHORT STORY Two: COOL BURN

ABORIGINES SHORT STORY Two:

COOL BURN

South Africa has been on Coronavirus Lockdown for nearly four months, during this process I have accepted my Aboriginal heritage, my new spirit follows the Aboriginal from West Africa across the Atlantic, eventually reaching our destination, the Aboriginal of Australia.

Some Australians are the first Settlers, who are showing signs of an expression of having a conscience. My spirit guide instructs me to look for the ‘killing fields’, all I can find is the conversations taking place around the ‘Killing Times’, as researchers collate memories and history from both Settlers and Aborigines, typically of the white settler, some honesty is expressed, but the truth remains hidden.

Then, I find the following comment, which directs me to the acknowledgement that the Aborigine had created grasslands, by burning the forestland over the centuries, this leads to the principle of Cool Burn, and the evidence that the Aboriginal, were farmers, in the real sense .      

This restriction proved ineffective too as graziers openly flaunted these restrictions and ran their sheep and cattle deeper and deeper into the interior, ironically in some situations onto grasslands the Aboriginals had created over the centuries by burning forestland.

Cool Burn
Col Burn

Research papers, typically would go though great detail, as the Settlers attempt to hide the truth, the massacres of the Aborigines are admitted to, the numbers never, the reasons always blame the Aborigine. Many Settler Families take years before they release a little bit of what they know about how their families were involved in the massacres, no-one talks about how their families secured their wealth.

In this latest move towards releasing the guilt conscience, almost no Aborigine voice is heard, if interaction takes place, they will extend their love and thanks, they will never express any antipathy towards the perpetrators of the evil, they fear repercussions, maybe death.

In South Africa, no antipathy is expressed by the Aboriginal, fears of repercussions is the continued exclusion from the formal economy, if antipathy does not exist, no reparation is possible, is what I have written about for years, today, I understand the Aboriginal reluctance, I question whether I am doing the right thing, by trying to generate antipathy.

I was cultivated to see the African, mainly as uncivilised, inferior, use descriptions in the diminutive, the boy, the girl, never as an adult, never as a human. While the language is biased, while hidden in the cultivated mind, is the intention of the language used, the concept that the Black, the Aborigines are inferior, antipathy is impossible.        

Hidden in all legislation, in all western academic writings, the text, is the ‘white’ bias thinking, that no matter how much ‘talking’ is being done between black and white,the use of the, English language, the bias that the nouns, the adjectives, the adverbs, tell different stories to different people, then I discovered, that the Aborigines used Cool Burn to manage their land, and suddenly, not only do I see the atrocities by the Settler through different eyes, this allows be to see superiority in the Aboriginal, superiority that I was only able to see, in the West African, the Mali, Mansa Musa, Timbuktu, legends.              

Cool Burn:

The Aboriginal farmed with what God had given them, the flora and fauna, throughout the centuries, they saved the flora and fauna, for the flora and fauna.

For as long as the human managed the flora and fauna, in the interests of the flora and fauna, the human’s food chain would be ensured, and the ecosystem would have looked like Australia when the Settlers arrived.

The Aborigine, would employ Cool Burn, when wind and weather conditions were favourable, a cool burn that allowed animals, including beetles and ant colonies time to escape. Young trees survived, the burnt grass kept its shape, and the grass seeds remained intact for regrowth.    

The Aboriginal people consider the trees’ canopy “sacred”, so a Cool Burn preserves the canopy of trees to achieve the following;

Protection and provision. The canopy provides shade, fruit flowers and seeds. It allows animals to come back quickly.

 

Refuge from the fire. When there’s a Cool Burn, insects and other small animals crawl up the tree to safety.

 

Preservation of the tree cycle. With a Cool Burn, the canopy remains intact the, tree does not miss its cyclic renewal, and preserves the tree cycle

 

Trigger for germination. The smoke from a cool burn goes through the canopy and triggers off a reaction for seeds up there to germinate.

 

During a Cool Burn, bush turkeys hunt for bugs and insects at the fire line while hawks scour it for small animals.

 

Animals know how to protect themselves from the Cool Burn: ants and snakes go deep down into their nests and burrows, kangaroos find safe spots on rocky outcrops.

 

New grass grows only weeks after a Cool Burn, it holds the soil together and provides a source of food for wombats, wallabies and native birds.

 

Wallaby, birds and other animals bathe in the cool ash to cleanse themselves of lice.

Sacred Grounds:

The Aboriginal people, live a lifestyle embodied in humanity, where God is supreme, where God is in all of us, including the flora and fauna. Within a family or clan structure, the most senior, the elder, is the God, my father would be respected as God, Unkulunkulu, when his father is present, his father is respected as the senior God, Unkulunkulu-Unkulunkulu.       

For this reason, family grave sites are sacred, and visited during cultural celebrations, community leaders grave sites, would be sacred to the entire community.

These cultural grave sites that the Aboriginal celebrates as sacred, whether in South Africa, Australia, or the Americas, the Settler found great difficulty in understanding, the Aboriginal’s anger, at our lack of respect for their sacred grounds, yet the entire Christian world, reacts to Turkey, moving Hagia Sophia from a status of Museum, visited by millions every year, to a Mosque status, which will still allow the millions to pay their respects.

Reparation:

Two months back, I had a reparation plan for the Australian Aborigine, a financial package that the world has never been presented with, the package would have moved the entire Aboriginal into the top 20% wealth bracket.

No reparation package paid to ‘black’ communities who have been severely prejudiced, has restored the Aboriginal, to the level where the Aboriginal descendants, will ever live the sustainable lifestyle, unless the perpetrators of the evil, acknowledge the evil, step one towards giving value to any financial reparation package.

While the systemic bias, that allowed the evil to remove the opportunities from people defined as non-white in 1681, while we allow the systemic bias mindsets, that allowed the economic segregation to continue through to today, no amount of money will restore the dignity and opportunity, that will bring reparation, if the present created social stratification, is not reversed.

Add your log to the fire, if it is placed in the right position, it will be a Cool Burn, you will be able to share the heat of your log, do not be afraid that your log will burn hot, it took our Aboriginal ancestors centuries to achieve the necessary skills.

Cedric de la Harpe

South Africa should have followed the PM of Pakistan and removed Lockdown on May 09. 2020. BLM 02

South Africa should have followed the PM of Pakistan and removed Lockdown on May 09. 2020.

President Ramaphosa, on May 09, 2020, the PM of Pakistan removed lockdown because the informal traders were no longer able to feed their families,  this was amazing foresight and date, a great achievement, South Africa’s Black Livelihoods’ Matter concerns, requires you to remove the lockdown today, don’t prejudice our citizens till a Court Action rules, that your countries Black Livelihoods’ do Matter.   Please;

THIS IS ADDENDUM 02 TO LETTER DATED AUGUST 02, 2020

FINDINGS Addendum 02

1:  Pakistan Prime Minister, understands that the majority of his population, survive on the informal economy, where the population, as families, rely on the spin off of the formal economy moving past them, and that no Government in the world, has been able to manage, without the informal economic sector; 

Pakistan starts with the ‘world lockdown model’, and on May 09, 2020, the red line on the graph that follows, the PM removes all lockdown, and by May 18, the Court has negated all the restrictive legislation, the daily new cases follow the Sweden trend, then moves away.

Pakistan Coronavirus movement, when not locked down.
Pakistan Coronavirus movement, when not locked down.       

Before I comment, I show the impact of the PM’s decision to remove the lockdown, the graph below shows that the death rate, like in Sweden, follows the movement of the virus daily cases;

We look at Sweden, who did not lockdown in BLM03

Pakistan daily Deaths movement after removing lockdown.
Pakistan daily Deaths movement after removing lockdown.   

This first year scientist does not wish to get into the impact of the positive mindset, but asks the question of the experts, “Is it possible that, removing the lockdown, and allowing the poverty groups the opportunity to scrounge food, brought a small factor of an ability to fight the virus, as it past through the community.

How did South Africa, under strict lockdown, no cigarettes to help the immune system, and no alcohol to reduce the impact on the medical system, due to the South African population’s drunken behaviour, compare with the Pakistani curve?

Very simply, the Scientists who prescribed the Cure Model for the South African virus has failed our poverty population.

Pakistan Covid Deaths / 100000 population
Pakistan Covid Deaths / 100000 population

On May 08, 2020, I blogged on the Pakistani changes, and asked our President to follow, and I quote from the News Article:

The pandemic hit Pakistan in late February. Since then, officials have recorded more than 24,000 confirmed cases and nearly 600 deaths.

Prime Minister Imran Khan on Thursday chaired a meeting of top government officials where the decision was taken to relax restrictions on public and industrial activities.

“We know our curve of infections and deaths (from COVID-19) is gradually rising. But the rate of increase is relatively very low in Pakistan,” Khan said in his post-meeting nationally televised remarks.

In defending the decision, Khan said it is not possible for anyone to predict when and if Pakistan will experience a peak like that of Europe and other worst-hit areas.

“Why are we going ahead to ease the lockdown? Because people in our country, particularly daily wagers, small shopkeepers, taxi drivers, laborers, white-collar families are all facing an extremely difficult situation to feed their families,” Khan said.

I celebrated Khan as a cricketer, today I celebrate him as a leader of people.

President Ramaphosa, the PM of Pakistan made a decision to remove the lockdown, in the interests of the majority of the population who are informal traders, this model I submit, you should have followed.

I believe that the Pakistan Model should have been followed when lockdown was removed, if the model had any proven scientific reason not to follow, in terms of Section 32(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act 108 of 1996, I request details of why you have followed the ‘prescribed scientific model’?

President Ramaphosa, on behalf of all the poverty black people, that I normally have contact with, those who I am currently not allowed to visit, I request you to remove the lockdown totally, failure which, the prejudice and damage that our poverty black population have suffered, we will link you personally to those who have prescribed the ‘medical treatment’, when we ask them to answer to the damages suffered.

This Addendum BLM02 will be followed with BLM03 in due course.

Cedric de la Harpe